Someone Did It

Sudan is a terrorist lawless state. Theymurdered and enslaved hundreds of thousands of people BEFORE Darfur. Osama Bin Laden was their welcome guest until 1998. They proudly represent the community of nations at the UN Human Rights Council.

Despite all this they are an internationally recognized country with borders.

So who committed an act of war against Sudan and blew up a convoy of civilians (story 1), relief supplies for Gaza (story 2) arms for Hamas (reality)?

Seeing as the people involved in the smuggling were Hamas and Iranian agents, the good bet is Israel or the US. Possibly a joint operation. But my bet is it was Israel.

Here’s why:

Whoever did the attack had excellent perfect intelligence for the operation- they knew the who, what, where, when and how. The US excels at two forms of intelligence gathering: electronic and bribery. So the US might have gotten wind via a paid source.

While it is possible that US intelligence got wind of the convoy, the greater likelihood is Mossad- Mossad specializes in long term penetration of Arab governments and their focus is uniquely on Iran and Hamas. Would the US be willing to bomb Sudan over a single illegal arms shipment? Only if it was part of a larger context- a message about Darfur. we have seen, since the Golden Child assumed office that Sudan has thrown out peacekeepers and aid workers in concert with similar failed tests conducted by North Korea, Iran, Russia, Venezuela and China. George Clooney’s Twitter account my be pinging the $350,000 Blackberry but nothing a liberal can think of matters to people who paint helicopters UN blue and then use them to gun down helpless civilians.

The attack happened in January, would Bush have sent a farewell card to Iran? He had four years to do that, why wait until the last week to say goodbye? And why in Sudan not in Iran’s oil production areas? We don’t even know if it was done during Bush’s presidency but I am very confident days into office, President Alinsky would never bomb the culturally significant people of Sudan.

Sudan’s air force is a haphazard organization but planes crash can create a major international incident, it is why Clinton used cruise missiles in 1998. You do not want to lose people or risk possible capture over a place like Sudan.

Both the US and Israel operate fleets of combat drones that can reach Sudan.

But the attack had, at most, marginal benefit to the US. The Israeli case is more compelling:

- Israel very much wants to interdict arms to Gaza and it is most in their interest to stop them.
- Israel really needed to send a message to Iran and Hamas of how far, hard and well she can hit.

Occam Razor and Qui Bono say it was Israel.

The implications of the attack are a ratcheted up shadow war between Israel and Iran. With Netanyahu assuming the PM’s office in the next couple of days, expect tensions to spike rapidly between Iran and Israel.

Obama may have a very high sense of his abilities but Netanyahu can read the newspapers and the intelligence as well as anyone. Iran is in the sprint to the finish for the bomb. It may already be a fait accompli. Russia finished the sellout of Israel over the weekend when she announced she would not press Iran on the nuclear issue EVEN IF THE US AGREED NOT TO EMPLACE ABMs IN EUROPE. From Israel’s perspective, the announcement by Russia that she did indeed have a contract to sell S-300 missiles to Iran was the final straw. The S-300s really complicate any strike by Israel against Iran. This really lights a fuse on Israel acting sooner rather than later.

Any and all diplomacy antiproliferation diplomacy with Iran is too little to late.

Can Israel even get to Iran? Does Israel have a “green light?” The US directly controls only one route to Iran- Iraqi airspace. But Israel may use ballistic missiles, commandos, fighters, drones, cruise missiles any or all in combination to get to where they have to go. When your life depends on it, there is no rule book.

War is coming. War is coming soon.