re: #67 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

Yes, I agree its imperfect. At some point the numbers fit an exponential (as expected) so well you must be capturing some aspect of the underlying spread - the group of people with a minimum amount of symptoms to seek medical care and the people that are known contacts of confirmed cases. There are many more that are low symptom/asymptomatic that are not accounted for or symptomatic people that aren’t tested or don’t report.

Its a guess. I’ve been tracking for a few weeks out of concern for someone else. I bought supplies (not excessive) and had time to iterate with meds, etc a good 2-3 weeks ago. Honestly, and gladly the closures were faster than I thought they would be. I was using per capita to compare our area and the US to Italy to know when we would feel it like them. Plan not panic.