Comment

All Votes In - Kloppenburg Wins WI Supreme Court Race

78
lostlakehiker4/06/2011 1:20:53 pm PDT

re: #65 Obdicut

The absolute numbers don’t matter. The percentage of the total vote that swings does.

At least stay consistent.

Actually, the mathematics of voting and error correction say different. The larger the election, the less probable a swing of a certain percentage becomes.

In an election involving 100 votes, with 1 percent of the ballots open to “replay”, a 1 vote swing is reasonably possible. That’s 1 percent, or 2 percent if it flips.

In an election involving 100 million votes, with 1 million of them “open to replay”, the probability of a swing of 1 percent in the final tally is negligible.

I’d rather stay consistent with accurate thinking about probability, than adhere to some sounds-good notion of consistency.