re: #811 Petero1818

The only way this is going to carry on after Super Tuesday (with any degree of uncertainty) is if Perry, Bachmann and Gingrich all line up behind Santorum and do so early enough in the process that Santorum can contend in SC. The religious conservatives cannot split their votes up. Looks like Bachmann and Perry will do so today or tomorrow. But I think Newt will fuck it up for them.

Obviously disagree. The main thing to note is that Gingrich essentially said last night he’s going to be a bomb-thrower - not to win it, but to ensure Romney doesn’t. I expect him to start doing this tomorrow, maybe today. I don’t think it’ll have any effect for New Hampshire, or at least not enough to matter.

South Carolina is the key. Can Romney’s positives be dragged down enough by Gingrich AND Santorum’s positives increased enough by Perry (and maybe Bachmann) to turn this into a race? We’ll know if Santorum wins (or comes very close) in South Carolina. We’ll get confirmation either way with Florida.

If Santorum can win one and hold close or win with the other it will go past Super Tuesday.

Thing is, Santorum’s the flavor of the month. He’s about to undergo the same scrutiny that crashed the previous FotM ABRs, and I don’t think he’s going to look any better. His sole point of survival at this point is that he’s all that’s left of the ABRs. (Huntsman, in my opinion, is Romney 2.0. Much improved, but carrying most of the same baggage. He’s not an ABR. Johnson and the rest are “who?” candidates.)