re: #76 lawhawk

There’s the possibility that a moderate faction succeeds Mubarak and keeps the CDA with Israel. The odds are probably around 25% that happens. More likely is that the cold peace gets that much colder, as Mubarak’s successor makes more bellicose statements and pushes for a referendum bringing the CDA under review. If that happens, the odds that the peace deal fails would be quite high.

What would it mean if the CDA fell?
Certainty the blockade of the Gazan boarder would be removed - but thats likely to happen in any democratic scenario for Egypt, unless they are threatened with losing the billions of funding from the US and decide its worth playing ball there.

But its not like Egypt would want to be “at war” with Israel right? Maybe I’m really naive here.