re: #27 Dangerman

One year ago today, betting markets gave Joe Biden a 5.9% chance of winning the presidency.

I think we can safely conclude that the political betting markets are dumb. It’s blind name recognition and the shallowest of political headlines. Either the investors have no clue, are completely ideologically committed anyways, or are investing assuming that everyone else is one of the first two.

These markets are probably at the “reliably wrong” level, where you can usually figure out what’s happening by assuming the opposite of what these things are telling you.