NATE SILVER11:04 PM
So, O’Connor needs to win the absentee/provisional ballots by 21 percentage points to win the state if all of those ballots are counted, which they presumably won’t be. So let’s round up a bit and say he’d have to win them by 25 points. Provisionals tend to be very Democratic leaning, and so it wouldn’t be crazy to think he could get there if all of the uncounted votes were provisionals. However, the majority of them are actually absentees, and those won’t necessarily be Democratic. So it’s something of a long shot, but there are enough votes there that I wouldn’t want to “call” the race, unless I knew more about the nature of who tends to vote absentee in the district.