re: #86 kirkspencer

Romney will run. Huntsman might run. But neither will win.

Kirk’s theory of the Republican Nomination process. There are three “blocks”: dominionist (christianist); nativist; and corporatist. The winner is the one who best appeals to the most blocks while avoiding any vetoes from one of the blocks.

Filter the list first by removing anyone who gets a veto from one or more blocks. Of those remaining, sort for popularity (normally using a scale of 0 to 2) with each of the groups and multiply the respective scores for a final tally. If there is more than one high score, that’s the horse race to watch.

Huntsman and Romney will be vetoed by the nativist and dominionist blocks, respectively if not mutually. Because of the domination the TP holds in both, the only scores are veto, 1, and 2 — if they’re a zero, they’re a veto for being a RINO.

I like your theory, but I think it is a hair too simple. You have to factor in the money. If it lines up heavy and early behind one candidate that distorts things. It happened in 2000, and it could happen again.