Analysis: what will Obama get back from Russia after ditching missile defence?

In case anyone was wondering what the sound of a fist unclenching is…

The Kremlin can barely believe its good fortune. Mr Obama has pressed the “reset” button to improve relations without obtaining anything more than permission for US aircraft to cross Russian airspace on resupply operations for troops in Afghanistan.

But the big question remains over what to do about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Russia has shown no inclination to budge on its refusal to support further sanctions against Tehran, nor has it cancelled a contract to sell S-300 air-defence missiles to the Islamic republic.

A senior Israeli MP, Zeev Elkin, warned in an interview with Russia’s Kommersant today that Jerusalem could be forced into a pre-emptive military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities if there was any sign that the Kremlin was about to sanction delivery of S-300s.

Moscow may become more intransigent, arguing that Washington itself no longer takes the threat as seriously as it did by cancelling the missile-defence shield. Any such argument would only harden Israel’s determination to act.

For Mr Putin, the lesson of today’s decision is clear. Intransigence pays dividends because the US and the European Union lack the patience or determination to face Moscow down. That is a lesson that send alarm bells ringing in the corridors of power of Russia’s former Soviet dominions.