The Senate and Governor races this year are incredibly close, according to the polling: Look How Close Democrats Are to Winning … and Losing.

Using the poll aggregator at the Huffington Post, I’ve compiled the current state of the hottest races this cycle, as well as what would happen if Dems shift the numbers a mere two points, then three points:

In the Senate, if the election was held today and these numbers held up, Republicans would pick up AR, AK, CO, IA, LA, MT, SD, and WV. They would lose Kansas for a net pick up of seven seats, or a 52-48 Mitch McConnell majority. Heck, at that point Kansas Independent Greg Orman would try to caucus with Republicans, and if they took him, that would be a 53-47 GOP majority.

But slide those numbers over just three points — easily doable if we get our “non-likely” voters to the polls, and things change significantly. Suddenly, Republicans are only assured of pickups in AK, LA, MT, and WV, with losses in Kansas and a too-close-to-call race in Arkansas (Blue), Kentucky (Red), and probably South Dakota. Even if they squeaked by in those three states, they’d still be shy of the majority.

It’s vitally important for anyone who cares about liberal values to get out and vote in this upcoming election; it’s going to be very close and the enthusiasm of the base is what will make the difference. Will we see another Republican sweep? I certainly hope not; that would be a real disaster for the country in my opinion. But all of us need to do our part in getting out the vote if we’re going to have a chance of preventing it.