Did Trump Win Because Russia Hacked the Election?

This isn’t proof, but some serious food for thought
World • Views: 41,190

Writer/cartoonist Dale Beran has a very interesting post at Medium about the possibility that Russia interfered with the presidential election to help Donald Trump: A Truly Fancy Bear.

So a friend of mine, a research scientist at a renowned university, came to me with this theory hoping I would punch some holes in it:

Why were our internal and public polls so unprecedentedly off the mark? Think-pieces have struggled to answer with ideas like “voting patterns have changed” (don’t they always?) or Conway’s “shadow supporters” purposefully misleading pollsters. But maybe the explanation is both crazier and much simpler. Maybe Russia, continuing their well established patterns of tipping elections and quietly toppling governments (see: Ukraine, entire Cold War), in line with their clear preference for Trump, took advantage of electronic voting and simply hacked a few key vulnerable counties in Wisconsin, PA, and FL to take out a historically anti-Russian Clinton in favor of Trump. The narrative writes itself but is meaningless without a smoking gun. A series of twitter-connected local journalists may have found one, and basic statistical testing can easily disprove or verify it.

Make sure to read the whole disturbing article. This isn’t a crazed Alex Jones-style conspiracy theory; it’s a thoughtful look at the evidence we have to date. And it concludes by suggesting a way the premise could be proved or disproved.

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73 comments

1
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:51:38am
2
electrotek  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:54:30am

Russia, the same country that wingnuts that pretend to show concern for LGBT rights when it comes to the Middle East, turn a complete blind eye to with Putin’s known repressive measures to curtail the LGBT groups there.

3
The Vicious Babushka  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:56:42am

Even if that is the case, how did the Russians use mind control on the “liberal” media to implant their “Both Candidates Are The Same!” and “Emails! Emails! Emails!” narrative.

4
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:56:47am

re: #2 electrotek

Russia, the same country that wingnuts that pretend to show concern for LGBT rights when it comes to the Middle East, turn a complete blind eye to with Putin’s known repressive measures to curtail the LGBT groups there.

Now you know why I drink. Well not really.

5
goddamnedfrank  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:57:06am

10 hours ago The Telegraph clearly quoted Corey Lewandowski saying this.

Now they’ve quietly updated their article to change the quote, without any explanation given whatsoever.

Is Rothwell such a terrible journalist that he mistook “rang me up” with “came out with” in a direct quote? The first version would seem to imply direct collusion between James Comey and the Trump Campaign, the second version utterly removes that without any notice that the article was changed at all.

The fucked up thing is that given the behavior of both the FBI and the modern press I find both explanations equally plausible at this point.

6
goddamnedfrank  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:57:59am
7
Belafon  Nov 17, 2016 • 11:58:45am

Statistical models won’t mean anything. Unless we have “look at these logs, they’re showing a hacked election” it’s not going to change the election or Republican’s behavior. “We really lost the election” isn’t going to make them suddenly act rational.

8
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:00:31pm

re: #5 goddamnedfrank

10 hours ago The Telegraph clearly quoted Corey Lewandowski saying this.

[Embedded content]

Is Rothwell such a terrible journalist that he mistook “rang me up” with “came out with” in a direct quote? The first version would seem to imply direct collusion between James Comey and the Trump Campaign, the second version utterly removes that without any notice that the article was changed at all.

The fucked up thing is that given the behavior of both the FBI and the modern press I find both explanations equally plausible at this point.

Fuck Comey so much. I’m beginning to wonder if that one alleged photo of his yard with the Trump sign was legit now.

9
austin_blue  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:00:39pm

But, golly, what could possibly be in it for the Russians and Putin?

///

10
Sir John Barron  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:01:18pm

re: #5 goddamnedfrank

10 hours ago The Telegraph clearly quoted Corey Lewandowski saying this.

[Embedded content]

Is Rothwell such a terrible journalist that he mistook “rang me up” with “came out with” in a direct quote? The first version would seem to imply direct collusion between James Comey and the Trump Campaign, the second version utterly removes that without any notice that the article was changed at all.

The fucked up thing is that given the behavior of both the FBI and the modern press I find both explanations equally plausible at this point.

Must say I had a pretty hard time believing Comey contacted Lewandowski before releasing the letter. Even as hacky as Comey was about the whole email server business.

11
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:01:49pm

re: #10 Sir John Barron

Must say I had a pretty hard time believing Comey contacted Lewandowski before releasing the letter. Even as hacky as Comey was about the whole email server business.

I do too but I must admit “rang me up”?

12
Sir John Barron  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:01:58pm

re: #10 Sir John Barron

Must say I had a pretty hard time believing Comey contacted Lewandowski before releasing the letter. Even as hacky as Comey was about the whole email server business.

But I can see Lewandowski saying something like that.

13
lawhawk  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:02:12pm

I don’t think Russia hacked the electronic voting systems. Too great a chance that this would be spotted before the election.

No, the Russians have a very long and distinguished history of agitprop and disinformation campaigns. This history predates even the Soviet Union, as the Russian tsars used agitprop and disinformation to destablize its European adversaries without firing a shot.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russians needed to find ways to balance the power with the US/NATO, which had always maintained an economic and technological edge, so they devoted significant resources into disinformation campaigns. It’s far easier and cheaper to beat a country or force one to stay on the sidelines with a disinformation campaign than it was to try and beat one with brute force - the Russians learned that in Afghanistan and in trying to stop the Chechens and other rogues in the former Soviet Republics.

Disinformation campaign against Clinton would be a cheaper and more cost effective effort than anything else. Throw in some clever hacking of various Democratic party organizations, leak data selectively and raise questions about what else might be pending, and you sow seeds of doubt about Clinton.

You then let the regular media outlets do what they do - regurgitate talking points endlessly on a loop.

14
The Vicious Babushka  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:02:30pm

re: #11 HappyWarrior

I do too but I must admit “rang me up”?

That’s Britspeak. Americans say “Called me”

15
Charles Johnson  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:04:00pm
16
goddamnedfrank  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:04:37pm

re: #6 goddamnedfrank

So … it’s just dogshit journalism at play. The reporter couldn’t be bothered to transcribe his shit correctly then his paper totally changed the tenor and meaning of a direct quote without giving notice.

17
Charles Johnson  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:04:40pm
18
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:05:02pm

re: #14 The Vicious Babushka

That’s Britspeak. Americans say “Called me”

That’s what I mean.

19
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:05:56pm

re: #15 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

They’re anti-anything that’s not white or Christian. They tolerate Jews when they want to accuse the left of being Anti-Israel but we know that’s a load of shit given the way Bannon treated his own wife wanting to enroll their daughters in a Jewish school.

20
Patricia Kayden  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:06:07pm

From the link in the post: “4. The electronic voting machines are very, very, very hackable. (source: Scientific American, Politico)”

For some reason, I was under the impression that electronic voting machines couldn’t be hacked. So naive of me. So yeah, someone needs to investigate to see if this election was stolen. This is a mess.

21
Timothy Watson  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:06:20pm

re: #6 goddamnedfrank

[Embedded content]

How do you mistake “came out” for “rang me up”? And who refers to Comey by just his first name?

22
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:06:30pm

re: #17 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Newt not saying much would be better than Rudy who last I heard is the favorite.

23
Patricia Kayden  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:06:45pm

re: #17 Charles Johnson

But isn’t Romney under consideration and he criticized Trump big time.

24
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:07:34pm

re: #21 Timothy Watson

How do you mistake “came out” and “rang me up”? And who refers to Comey by just his first name?

That’s what I mean. I mean maybe Corey’s trying to fuck things ehre but ring me up is clearly called me. To clarify, I wasn’t confused by the ring me up quote, I understand some Brit speak but confused like yourself Timothy how the reporter could get that and “came out” mixed up.

25
Nyet  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:07:45pm

Tbh, even taking everything we know into account, I don’t find this hypothesis worth discussing. Zero evidence - zero discussion.

26
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:08:19pm

re: #23 Patricia Kayden

But isn’t Romney under consideration and he criticized Trump big time.

Maybe it’s just Trump kissing Mitt’s ass to make him feel better? I’d be shocked if Mitt acutally were under serious consideration for a job.

27
The Vicious Babushka  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:10:08pm

I’m beginning to think all these “leaks” of “Cabinet nominees” are a head fake and it’s “The Apprentice” in its most horrific incarnation.

You won’t find out until the season finale. It’s all show biz.

28
Belafon  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:10:35pm

re: #25 Nyet

Tbh, even taking everything we know into account, I don’t find this hypothesis worth discussing. Zero evidence - zero discussion.

Yeah, without logs showing hacking, I’d rather us concentrate on dealing with Trump.

29
lawhawk  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:11:06pm

Well, looks like all those shipping companies looking at a Northwest Passage route will get their wish.

30
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:11:44pm

Nothing to worry about. Its a hoax by the Chinese.

31
Charles Johnson  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:12:15pm

re: #23 Patricia Kayden

But isn’t Romney under consideration and he criticized Trump big time.

I’ll be surprised if Romney becomes Secretary of State. I think Trump is going to have to pick someone he knows is a willing puppet.

32
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:12:40pm
33
goddamnedfrank  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:13:06pm

I didn’t find the “rang me up” quote all that suspicious because Corey Lewandowski is a fucking ponce.

34
KGxvi  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:15:08pm

re: #26 HappyWarrior

Maybe it’s just Trump kissing Mitt’s ass to make him feel better? I’d be shocked if Mitt acutally were under serious consideration for a job.

I’d be shocked if Mitt were actually considering taking a job in a Trump Administration.

Now, Mitt taking a job in the eventual Pence Administration due to Trump’s impeachment or 25th Amendment Section 4 removal… That, that I could see.

35
goddamnedfrank  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:15:49pm

re: #31 Charles Johnson

I’ll be surprised if Romney becomes Secretary of State. I think Trump is going to have to pick someone he knows is a willing puppet.

Yeah, Trump has spent his entire life surrounding himself with yes-men. He’s not going to change that pattern especially now that a majority of his cabinet can remove him from office. We’re in for at least four years of paranoid dictator.

36
Backwoods_Sleuth  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:16:42pm

good grief

37
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:17:36pm

re: #34 KGxvi

I’d be shocked if Mitt were actually considering taking a job in a Trump Administration.

Now, Mitt taking a job in the eventual Pence Administration due to Trump’s impeachment or 25th Amendment Section 4 removal… That, that I could see.

Most definitely.

38
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:17:44pm

I just realized I’m likely to be close to Trump a lot in the coming weeks.

The base I work at has had AF-1 land here a few times, and Trump’s fraud trial is here in San Diego.

39
Belafon  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:18:46pm

re: #36 Backwoods_Sleuth

good grief

First, you must join the party.

40
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:18:53pm

re: #36 Backwoods_Sleuth

good grief

[Embedded content]

Then why didn’t you join the Democratic Party officially then asshole? Goddamn I’m sick of this guy. I really fucking am and if I get told that the (D) doesn’t matter, yes, yes it does. If Bernie wants to talk issues fine, I may even have agreement on it but he has no room to talk about what a party he doesn’t even belong to should be doing after this.

41
Backwoods_Sleuth  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:18:54pm
42
bratwurst  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:19:41pm

re: #36 Backwoods_Sleuth

good grief

[Embedded content]

He is so dedicated to “reforming” the Democratic Party that he actually lowered himself to join it about a year ago!

43
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:19:41pm

re: #39 Belafon

First, you must join the party.

He wants to be able to have it both ways. Wants to get credit when the Democratic Party has its successes and be able to say “Hey I’m not one of them” when they have failures.

44
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:20:37pm

re: #41 Backwoods_Sleuth

[Embedded content]

Which honestly would be fine if he hadn’t acted like Clinton’s stance was “selling people out.” Goddamn Bernie.

45
Patricia Kayden  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:21:42pm

re: #36 Backwoods_Sleuth

I still like Sanders even though I didn’t vote for him during the primaries. I hope his reforms push the party to the left and focus on addressing Republican voter suppression tactics which are about to get much worse. Something went wrong on November 8th as evidenced by so many Democrats staying home and not voting. I don’t understand why fear of a Trump presidency wasn’t enough to motivate them.

I do not blame Secretary Clinton for her election loss and don’t feel the need to demonize her like some progressives so I hope Sanders’ reforms don’t devolve into Clinton bashing.

46
electrotek  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:21:46pm

re: #38 Kragar

I just realized I’m likely to be close to Trump a lot in the coming weeks.

The base I work at has had AF-1 land here a few times, and Trump’s fraud trial in here in San Diego.

Godspeed brother.

47
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:23:19pm

re: #45 Patricia Kayden

I still like Sanders even though I didn’t vote for him during the primaries. I hope his reforms push the party to the left and focus on addressing Republican voter suppression tactics which are about to get much worse. Something went wrong on November 8th as evidenced by so many Democrats staying home and not voting. I don’t understand why fear of a Trump presidency wasn’t enough to motivate them.

I do not blame Secretary Clinton for her election loss and don’t feel the need to demonize her like some progressives so I hope Sanders’ reforms don’t devolve into Clinton bashing.

I don’t blame him for the loss at all but if he wants to reform the party, he needs to actually join it.

48
Franklin  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:23:32pm

re: #16 goddamnedfrank

So … it’s just dogshit journalism at play. The reporter couldn’t be bothered to transcribe his shit correctly then his paper totally changed the tenor and meaning of a direct quote without giving notice.

Or, Lewandowski said “called me” and Rothwell wrote “rang me up”.

49
Sir John Barron  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:23:52pm

I can’t imagine Romney taking a cabinet post and thereby “work” for Trump.

50
sagehen  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:24:03pm

re: #12 Sir John Barron

But I can see Lewandowski saying something like that.

Later in the article, Lewandowski says

“And then, Donald Trump won the election campaign by the largest majority since Ronald Reagan in 1984.”

Which is obviously not true.

51
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:24:14pm

re: #46 electrotek

Godspeed brother.

I will be tossing the bird every single time I drive by it.

52
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:26:07pm
53
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:26:51pm

re: #52 Kragar

[Embedded content]

The special relationship has become a bizzaro comedy.

54
Skip Intro  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:27:40pm

re: #52 Kragar

He’ll get her a super great rate an his DC hotel.

55
nines09  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:27:58pm

re: #36 Backwoods_Sleuth

Strong words from someone who isn’t even a Democrat.

56
Backwoods_Sleuth  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:28:01pm
57
CuriousLurker  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:28:07pm

re: #52 Kragar

[Embedded content]

#Facepalm I’m effing mortified by this idiot’s incompetence.

58
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:29:14pm

re: #56 Backwoods_Sleuth

[Embedded content]

I like Pelosi but I’m fine with this.

59
Dr. Matt  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:29:20pm

Instagram

Biden Forges President’s Signature On Executive Order To Make December Dokken History Month #TheOnion

In My Dreams Dokken

60
CuriousLurker  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:05pm

A small ray of sunshine amid the gloom:

61
Sir John Barron  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:10pm

re: #50 sagehen

“And then, Donald Trump won the election campaign by the largest majority since Ronald Reagan in 1984.”

Have I ever mentioned that I can fly? Not just on an airplane, but I can literally just take off into the air like a bird.

62
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:17pm

Oh now, I know why Coulter made the stupid Indian joke, Trump is apparently meeting with Haley for SoS. Haley’s not qualified for that position but Coulter’s stupid racist joke has nothing ot do with why.

63
Hal_10000  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:29pm

This is nonsense. The article he links on the vulnerabilities of the voting machines is eight years old. It is very out of date. The voting machines are literally not connected to the internet. There are numerous safeguards to make sure the vote tallies match the number of voters who signed in.

Moreover, his claim the the polls were way off is wrong. Clinton won the popular vote by about 1%. This is well within the standard 2-3 point variation between the final poll numbers and the election results.

64
Colère Tueur de Lapin  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:30pm

re: #52 Kragar

The bureaucrats at the State Department are all suffering their worst protocol nightmares.

65
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:35pm

re: #60 CuriousLurker

A small ray of sunshine amid the gloom:

[Embedded content]

Good.

66
Dr. Matt  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:31:48pm

re: #57 CuriousLurker

#Facepalm I’m effing mortified by this idiot’s incompetence.

At least he didn’t day, “Shoot me a text next time you’re in my hood”.

67
bratwurst  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:32:00pm

re: #58 HappyWarrior

I like Pelosi but I’m fine with this.

Exactly how I feel. I don’t have a major complaint with “San Fran Nan” (as a former lizard user to call her derisively), but it is hard to escape the feeling that the next generation of leaders needs to emerge ASAP.

68
Kragar  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:33:19pm
69
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:33:42pm

re: #67 bratwurst

Exactly how I feel. I don’t have a major complaint with “San Fran Nan” (as a former lizard user to call her derisively), but it is hard to escape the feeling that the next generation of leaders needs to emerge ASAP.

Yep. That’s why I was honestly hoping O’Malley would somehow emerge as HRC’s biggest challenger. We need younger leadership. Not trying to be ageist here but in a way, it’s hard to sell us the party of change and the future. We’ll see what happens with this challenge.

70
nines09  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:34:23pm

re: #60 CuriousLurker

Years too late, but a start.

71
Kilroy was here  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:35:22pm

re: #52 Kragar

[Embedded content]

During his first call with the British Prime Minister, Trump said “If you travel to the US, you should let me know” theguardian.com

72
HappyWarrior  Nov 17, 2016 • 12:35:37pm

re: #68 Kragar

[Embedded content]

You know it wouldn’t even bother me that much if Bernie hadn’t acted like Clinton’s approach to the minimum wage so awful but because he did, I find his attitude absolutely self-serving and proving what I tried telling his diehards that the man is just another politician, not some hero but a politician. I liked Hillary more than him but I didn’t put her on a pedestal either the way Bernie’s kids did with him.

73
ObserverArt  Nov 17, 2016 • 2:54:15pm

re: #56 Backwoods_Sleuth

BREAKING: Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan announces challenge to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
3:12 PM - 17 Nov 2016
469 469 Retweets 532 532 likes

Funny thing about Tim Ryan, I don’t know if Happy Warrior remembers but I had mentioned Ryan as a potential Ohio candidate for Senator maybe even a future Presidential run. He’s younger than many other Ohio democrats and he comes from that area of Ohio that Trump worked so hard this past election…Youngstown/Warren.


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