Election Day White-Knuckle Thread 4
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If Trump loses OH and PA is he basically fucked?
Unsurprisingly, the wingnuts just west of me (Wyoming) has just been called for Trump. The polls are now closed in Nebraska, and all eyes are on NE-2 and the turnout in NE-1.
re: #1 Eclectic Cyborg
yes, with the caveat that he doesn’t counter someplace unexpected… which looks… unlikely
re: #2 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Unsurprisingly, the wingnuts just west of me (Wyoming) has just been called for Trump. The polls are now closed in Nebraska, and all eyes are on NE-2 and the turnout in NE-1.
C’mon, Omaha
re: #2 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Nebraska called for Trump with no votes reported. Good job NYT. They don’t break down the EV by district, which is how it’s awarded here.
re: #1 Eclectic Cyborg
If Trump loses OH and PA is he basically fucked?
If he wins every state, he’s still basically fucked. And so are we.
Fox News looks so depressed now that Trump has probably switched to watching Russia Today!
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) November 4, 2020
re: #6 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Nebraska called for Trump with no votes reported. Good job NYT. They don’t break down the EV by district, which is how it’s awarded here.
They tend to report Maine the same way, and it also is by district.
re: #4 piratedan
yes, with the caveat that he doesn’t counter someplace unexpected… which looks… unlikely
Michigan is looking fucked.
Here’s to hoping deep down that Biden wins Texas
re: #8 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
I thought Kasparov was in New York.
I snagged a Fox stream, I feel dirty, but I want the schadenfreude. Fox predicts Hickenlooper taking it.
re: #10 The Pie Overlord!
my understanding on how this goes… rurals report first because there are fewer votes to report, fewer lines, so quicker counting. Metro Areas take longer because of longer lines and more votes to be tallied…… so just like Va, rural stuff is coming in first, urban stuff will show up later…
that’s how I understand it…
Liking Ohio, liking texas.
Michigan is super early, don’t worry.
Can’t stress this enough, everyone: Don’t read too much into these early returns. A lot can happen between now and 100% precincts reporting. This could take days to figure out. #Election2020
— Detroit Free Press (@freep) November 4, 2020
re: #16 Egregious Philbin
Liking Ohio, liking texas.
Michigan is super early, don’t worry.
If Joe wins Texas, it doesn’t matter if he loses Florida. And if Joe won Florida, for all intents and purposes it’s over.
from downstairs
virtually no results in yet
we couldn’t wait
half the bottle’s gone
so we’re looking at half a champagne breakfast anyway
I expect the election results to be the same even though we drank half the celebration already
I’m not young, but I’ve never been this emotionally invested in a presidential election before.
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 4, 2020
re: #16 Egregious Philbin
Liking Ohio, liking texas.
Michigan is super early, don’t worry.
NYT on Wayne County, Mich. (Detroit) has it tilting Trump in the early counting. I doubt it stays that way.
please everyone relax and remember
the order the votes are counted or reported is meaningless
the only thing that matters is the final total
re: #20 Charles Johnson
It’s because it’s the beginning of the end of everything if Biden doesn’t win.
I am amazed at Kansas! Hoping those 2 hours I put in phonebanking helps! Still hoping for Joe to pull an upset in Texas and I had a GOOD feeling about Ohio with people were pissed off at the corruption going on in the state GOP.
re: #1 Eclectic Cyborg
If Trump loses OH and PA is he basically fucked?
trump hasn’t been fucked in years
even when he paid for it
re: #21 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
NYT on Wayne County, Mich. (Detroit) has it tilting Trump in the early counting. I doubt it stays that way.
Wayne County includes Detroit and Dearborn but also a bunch of white suburbs like Redford and Livonia.
Why does MSNBC have Trump red, Biden blue, and not yet decided just very slightly darker blue?
Watched CNN for a little while. I expect Wolf Blitzer to get down on his haunches and start flinging shit around the studio any time now.
Trump is now ahead in Texas.
re: #29 Vote Cthulhu - No longer the greater evil!
Trump is now ahead in Texas.
Probably still a shit ton of votes to count there, no?
re: #20 Charles Johnson
[Embedded content]
I’m a nervous wreck. Trying to calm down my Canadian sister. I still feel that we have this.
Nate Silver has been overtaken by the mobs and eaten.
re: #30 Eclectic Cyborg
Probably still a shit ton of votes to count there, no?
There are, but unfortunately outside of El Paso, all of the urban/suburban areas are close to having all votes in.
re: #20 Charles Johnson
The stakes never ever approached this level.
re: #8 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
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re: #20 Charles Johnson
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I told Facebook that my wanting to still live in this country is riding on tonight. I can forgive the populace for 2016, but if they do the same goddamned thing tonight, I’ll be at a consulate somewhere trying to get a job and resident status.
the weird thing is the analysts on fox sound more optimistic about biden than liberals on twitter, right now.
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) November 4, 2020
OAnon has a seat in Congress.
BREAKING: Republican Marjorie Greene wins election to U.S. House in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District. #APracecall at 9:16 p.m. EST. #Election2020 #GAelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
re: #33 b.d.
Nate Silver has been overtaken by the mobs and eaten.
“Would now be a good time for people to break open the heads of neighbors and feast on the gooey insides?”
“Yes, Ken, now would be the perfect time for that.”
re: #39 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
[Embedded content]
We’re prone to bouts of fatalism that would give suicidal Russian novelists a run for their money.
re: #24 🌹UOJB!
I am amazed at Kansas! Hoping those 2 hours I put in phonebanking helps! Still hoping for Joe to pull an upset in Texas and I had a GOOD feeling about Ohio with people were pissed off at the corruption going on in the state GOP.
With 41% of only one county reported in Nebraska (Cass, south of Omaha, NE-1) Trump is ahead 3,012 to 2,703.
Wait! There’s an update: In Buffalo County (seat Kearney, NE-3), Trump leads Biden 2,677 to 1,960 (Biden is overperforming in NE-3 by a significant margin in the extremely early returns).
This is a nail-biter. /s
Biden lead down to 105,000 votes in NC. In my redneck county, FFVCS actually outperformed his vote total.
One down, 3 to go.
Cory Gardner is the first Republican Senator to fall. https://t.co/PTPtB5zIRb
— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) November 4, 2020
BREAKING: THE Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats.
— Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBlanch12) November 4, 2020
South Dakota: Razor Thin Legalization in South Dakota only trailing by around 500 votes. via @24liveblog https://t.co/mxmg1b7awB pic.twitter.com/0Vo2PrOR0v
— NORML (@NORML) November 4, 2020
Seizures Induced In Millions Of Americans As CNN Map Strobes Wildly Between Blue And Red https://t.co/zR5vPrDl5R pic.twitter.com/yW5V81Bi5n
— The Onion (@TheOnion) November 4, 2020
NE-2 (Omaha) tilting red, NE-1 (Lincoln) strong blue with half the votes counted there. No Panhandle returns in yet (still hooking up telegraph wires) but NE-3 has Trump underperforming (so far).
Getting 2018 vibes tonight, starting with Florida breaking to the GOP, continuing with Ds gaining in Midwest burbs. Even if Trump wins Ohio, Biden’s already ahead of Clinton’s raw vote in places like DelCo (Columbus burbs) and Medina (outskirts of Cleveland).
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) November 4, 2020
re: #53 teleskiguy
I am just so depressed by seeing so many human beings voting against being human. It just boggles my mind!
Biden is now gaining in Texas by 54,000ish votes
How a senator can stand on the floor of the senate holding a snowball to disprove climate change and get easily reelected is a true sign of the apocalypse.
re: #57 retired cynic
I am just so depressed by seeing so many human beings voting against being human. It just boggles my mind!
Don’t get bent. We are chimpanzees with driver’s licenses.
BREAKING: New Jersey has voted to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over!
— Marijuana Policy Project (@MarijuanaPolicy) November 4, 2020
re: #62 Patricia Kayden
Cannibalism!!
He’s not dead yet! But it is hard to tell with statisticians:
I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we’ve never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
re: #58 electrotek
Biden is now gaining in Texas by 54,000ish votes
It will swing back and forth as the barbarous red nether regions and the blue islands of civilization are alternately added to the total.
Ugh.
Madison Cawthorn, 25, will be among the youngest lawmakers in the modern history of Congress, and is the first member of Congress to be born in the 1990s
This guy is a shithead.
BREAKING: Republican Madison Cawthorn wins election to U.S. House in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. #APracecall at 9:20 p.m. EST. #Election2020 #NCelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
re: #57 retired cynic
I am just so depressed by seeing so many human beings voting against being human. It just boggles my mind!
c.s. lewis immediately springs to mind. humans are by and large hopelessly bent. we turn back the forces of darkness only at great cost and great personal peril. My classes read _Out of the Silent Planet_ this semester, and I tried to show how in Lewis’s world, the battle between good and evil isn’t the comfortable fait accompli with God sitting comfortably on the throne and Satan vanquished. The battle is ongoing, and free will means we can certainly fuck it up.
It’s early and returns are still coming in. But hearing concerns from Trump adviser about Michigan and Wisconsin, and possibly Georgia and North Carolina. Asked about Ohio, adviser said “maybe” that state too. Others in campaign more confident.
— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) November 4, 2020
re: #70 teleskiguy
This guy is a shithead.
[Embedded content]
Cry more, lib.
— Madison Cawthorn (@CawthornforNC) November 4, 2020
Seems to me if there are 300,000 ballots undelivered, two of the places you’re counting where they ain’t delivered are TAMPA and MIAMI, then it’s hard to judge Florida just yet.
Stay. Frosty. Patriots.
And remember, tell them: “FUCK YOU. KEEP COUNTING.” 😘😎🇺🇸— Eric Garland (@ericgarland) November 4, 2020
New Jersey has voted to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over.
re: #74 teleskiguy
Glad to see he’s all professional-like and magnanimous in victory.
These are the people the villagers in the Beltway press say we should get along with.
re: #74 teleskiguy
Let’s get those women accusing him of rape to push charges. Anything!
re: #68 Shiplord Kirel: Fan of USPS, Goodyear, and Oreo
It will swing back and forth as the barbarous red nether regions and the blue islands of civilization are alternately added to the total.
That lead has already disappeared. Trump’s up 10,000 votes now with 73% of the vote in. There’s still outstanding votes in Dallas and Harris counties, but it’s only around 100k gain, where there are about 2 million left to be counted. Unless a miracle happens, you can chalk Texas up for Trump.
re: #79 retired cynic
Let’s get those women accusing him of rape to push charges. Anything!
To REPUBLICANS rape is a fucking badge of honor.
This is like being awake during your own surgery.
— Jimmy Kimmel (@jimmykimmel) November 4, 2020
My county showed an 81.3 percent voter turnout. Up from 69 percent four years ago. And, yes, FFVCS increased his percentage from 73 to 75.1. Ugh!
Heyooo! https://t.co/sLEtTFfoxD
— Charlie Vogel, aka His Teleness the Charlie Lama (@teleskiguy) November 4, 2020
re: #85 The Pie Overlord!
I’m crying now.
Michigan isn’t lost at all. There’s only 2% of the votes from Detroit counted. That alone is going to be a HUGE swing for Biden.
I saw this and I laughed despite myself pic.twitter.com/vbNERfLFHu
— Barbara Smith (@nanaslugdiva) November 3, 2020
Cory Gardner has conceded the race.
You won’t be missed. https://t.co/1ZuhYFfBAi
— Charlie Vogel, aka His Teleness the Charlie Lama (@teleskiguy) November 4, 2020
Fucking Florida - I know it was never considered a gimme (for either side) but this seems to be a serious “polling fail”
Swore I was going to stay off of all media today, to keep the anxiety levels down to survivable. And here I am anyway, hanging out with the Lizards. The TV is staying totally off. Facebook I’m not going near for at least two days. Have glanced over now and again to read tweets from Stonekettle and Charlie Pierce and Hoarse Whisperer. But this is the only place to be tonight, with the folks who’ve helped keep me semi-sane through these four years of insanity.
Congratulations to Michele and Pie Overlord on the adorable news you’ve both received!
Hoping the results tonight give you two reasons to celebrate, Stanley Sea!
Here’s to more good news than bad tonight, and justice getting ready to roll.
Watching Netflix, definitely a superior choice to the cable teevee or Twitter.
Okay a quick primer because it’s a lot of people fearmongering
The reason people are saying not to worry about first returns is that there’s a record amount of mail ballots and unless a state previously had no-fault absentees it will have needed to build infrastructure— Linda Tirado (@KillerMartinis) November 4, 2020
Chris Christie saying Trump campaign sure they’ll win Ohio. I know. I know.
Biden up 17,000 votes in NC with 685 precincts left
re: #103 GlutenFreeJesus
Chris Christie saying Trump campaign sure they’ll win Ohio. I know. I know.
don’t tell anybody https://t.co/dqfnXUPNrE
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 4, 2020
The polls will close in Iowa in seven minutes.
Then we get to find out if Joni Ernst will be headed home.
Congratulations to the new neo-Nazi congressman, the new Q congresswoman, and the new congressman who gained prominence lying about Trump’s true weight. Big night for the Republican Party
— Adam Weinstein (@AdamWeinstein) November 4, 2020
re: #108 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
The polls will close in Iowa in seven minutes.
Then we get to find out if Joni Ernst will be headed home.
“Phony Joni. A lot of people don’t know that.”
Let’s be honest here, if God and Satan were running, it’d look like this.
Because Murica.
re: #107 b.d.
Makes sense. Looking at Florida, Trump is winning the “bringing an alligator inside a gas station” voters, which there are fewer off in Ohio.
— MF (@MostlyFunnier) November 4, 2020
https://t.co/TDLrqVh1JY pic.twitter.com/DtfMeRJzYz
— Charlie Vogel, aka His Teleness the Charlie Lama (@teleskiguy) November 4, 2020
re: #110 Ace Rothstein
Phony Joni. A lot of people don’t know that.
I’ve been calling her Phony Joni ever since Luke Russert endlessly slobbered over her in 2014.
re: #111 Varek Raith
Let’s be honest here, if God and Satan were running, it’d look like this.
Because Murica.
“That isn’t the real God. I mean, why would a real God make me?”
Biden up 17,800 in NC with 664 precincts left to report
re: #115 Belafon
“That isn’t the real God. I mean, why would a real God make me?”
It’s God’s fault.
I form the light, and create darkness: I make peace, and create evil: I the Lord do all these things.
(Isaiah 45:7, KJV)
re: #117 TarHellion
Biden up 17,800 in NC with 664 precincts left to report
Is this with early & mail-in counted or not?
#BREAKING: Delaware’s Sarah McBride to become nation’s first trans state senator #ElectionNight https://t.co/383HAdee57 pic.twitter.com/hFIHCqEz2G
— The Hill (@thehill) November 4, 2020
Welp.
Strap yourselves in folks: officials in Pennsylvania and Michigan say that counting mail ballots could take until 6th November.#Election2020 #ElectionDay
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 4, 2020
I can understand the freakout. A lot thought this would be a landslide. Fuck we were talking about TX turning blue.
Sadly this is America, where everything is down to the margins and late.
Still confident.
BREAKING: Republican Lindsey Graham wins reelection to U.S. Senate from South Carolina. #APracecall at 9:57 p.m. EST. #Election2020 #SCelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
I’m utterly stunned at a lot of this. High turnout. But hardened results in rural areas and not as big as expected wins in urban areas. Switching from heroin to acid.
Ugh. Pennsylvania has Trump up by 30,000 votes now.
Good new is that the “Pennsyltucky” counties are almost all completely counted, while both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (and suburbs) are all under 15% counted, so that number should be shifting as the votes start coming in.
Biden up 16,000 in NC with 581 precincts to report
.@CalNBC: Election officials in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, say “we should not expect complete results until 5 a.m. local time.” #MSNBC2020 pic.twitter.com/sKpU7hHE1F
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 4, 2020
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 4, 2020
Of all the times to pull something like this. What a disgrace.
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 4, 2020
re: #121 The Pie Overlord!
We knew that in PA. Sec of state said 3 days to complete.
Swear to God, this fucking country.
How the fuck does a guy who admits to lying about the severity of a pandemic that’s taken out 230,000+ of the people he’s supposed to safeguard, in addition to imprisoning children, somehow look like he has a really good chance of winning?
I’m getting offline for bit. I keep crunching numbers on Politico’s map and I keep coming up with a Trump win. I know I’m going to get yelled at for this, but Biden almost winning TX and FL is bullshit. If something doesn’t happen with MI or WI (or both), game over.
Fuck this country.
Here I thought we were in good shape with Senate races, and they are all melting away! Even if we get Joe over the finish line, what good is it with Machete Mitch waiting in the wings?
Surprise upset?
Kate Bolz (D) leads Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) by 52 to 46% with Dennis Grace (L) taking 2.3%, with 43% of the vote counted in NE-1 (Lincoln).
NE-3 called for Rep. Adrian Smith (R), taking 3/4 of the votes of 1/4 counted.
NE-2 (Omaha) Rep. Don Bacon (R) is +12 over Kara Eastman (D) with 41% counted.
Fuck the fucking fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck.
FFVCS now up 25,000 in NC. I want to move to Belize.
AZ votes starting Maricopa Co 54-44 for Biden
NYT calls Kansas for Trump with 7 point lead and 2/3 of the votes counted.
What does the Arizona Maricopa Co. vote mean for Biden. Is that good or will it be enough?
re: #138 Dread Pirate Ron
same for Mark Kelly
re: #137 TarHellion
FFVCS now up 25,000 in NC. I want to move to Belize.
They have Hurricane Eta at the moment.
.@LacraiMitchell says there has been a report of an internet outage in Osceola County, Florida, which could cause a delay in when election results are announced https://t.co/Te86vJczcW pic.twitter.com/9clTod2wTs
— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 4, 2020
I had Biden winning 280-258 and that is still in play. Got to win the upper midwest. If he could pull Arizona, even better.
Doug Jones couldn’t pull it off.
BREAKING: Republican Tommy Tuberville wins election to U.S. Senate from Alabama, beating incumbent Sen. Doug Jones. #APracecall at 9:10 p.m. CST. #Election2020 #ALelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
re: #140 Tyrion
What does the Arizona Maricopa Co. vote mean for Biden. Is that good or will it be enough?
It’s about 2/3 of Arizona’s population but these are early votes, still have in person and mail in to count.
Wake county, NC, population 1 million is only 15% in. And it’s been polling 66% Biden so far.
re: #146 Dread Pirate Ron
It’s about 2/3 of Arizona’s population but these are early votes, still have in person and mail in to count.
NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 10:08 PM
Doing this math quickly, but Biden leads by about 145,000 votes in Arizona’s Maricopa County early and absentee votes. Republicans won the Election Day vote today there by 34,000 votes, so that looks like it would not be enough for Trump to overcome Biden’s current lead.
LAURA BRONNER
NOV. 3, 10:13 PM
North Carolina has reported about 84 percent of the total number of expected votes there tonight, and so far, as we expected, an early lead for Democrats that was due to mail and early votes is narrowing significantly as more Election Day votes are being reported. But late-arriving mail ballots, which may be more Democratic, could still shift the race.
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