re: #501 KGxvi

I suppose one of the central questions is how will the Republicans respond to being in the minority in one or both Houses? It also depends on how much further Trump spirals between now and then and how the big GOP donors react - for example, I’m guessing the Koch brothers probably aren’t on board with tariffs and a trade war. And as someone mentioned above, the 2020 map has lots of Republicans up in the Senate (though in mostly favorable races), so a combination of erratic behavior, trade wars, and a deeply unpopular president could lead some of them to save themselves over an interloper who has no real loyalty to the party.

There’s a lot of moving parts here, and it’s hard to game it out without controlling for some issues or otherwise making assumptions.

As long as the GOP base is loyal to Trump, they won’t move against him. Guaranteed way to get primaried out of office.