Re: ‘Settled Science’

Environment • Views: 1,847

Here’s a really good post at The Island of Doubt about a talking point that’s suddenly everywhere in the denial-o-sphere: What is this ‘settled science’ of which you speak?

In the past couple of days a pernicious little meme has appeared in two leading North American newspapers. I refer to the notion that there is such a thing as “settled science.” First, on a column about climatology Monday the Globe and Mail’s Margaret Wente asked not-so-rhetorically “So much for the science being settled. Now what?” The following day the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page weighed in with a review of “what used to be called the ‘settled science’ of global warming.”

Both offerings betrayed a solid lack of understanding, not only of recent events involving recent allegations of errors in IPCC reports, but also of how science works, further reinforcing the thesis that journalists who write about science really should take a few courses in the subject first.

The Wall Street Journal editorial, it will come as no surprise, is the most egregious of the two when it comes to misrepresenting matters climatological. Citing Jonathan Leake of London’s Sunday Times demonstrates just how little respect the WSJ editorialist has for responsible journalism. But Wente does more or less the same thing; she just doesn’t bother to source her statements back to the discredited journalists who first came up with some of the more outlandish allegations.

More troubling, though, is the fact that both writers just don’t seem to get the nature of the scientific process. Science is never completely “settled.” Of course, much our understanding of the way the universe works has long been nailed down to the point where there’s little to no controversy among scientists. But even on the most fundamental matters generally taught to students as an established fact, there are always scientists poking around the edges, looking for flaws in the ointment. Nothing is ever settled. Indeed, almost every scientist makes his or her living challenging what others have already agreed.

Read through the archives of magazines like New Scientist, for example, and you’ll find plenty of features investigating such things as modified Newtonian dynamics (maybe F doesn’t always equal ma), or theories that suggest the speed of light might actually change over time, or that Darwinian natural selection might be in need of some rethinking. Papers are being written every day that remind us that our understanding of nature is an evolving and neverending process. We’re forever refining and reforming our model of reality. Anyone who suggests that the science is “settled” is missing the point.

So if ever there was a straw man in climatology circles, it would be that the science of anthropogenic global warming is “settled.” It isn’t and never will be.

And on a related topic, Tim Lambert has been all over the unreported story of Leakegate, a sordid tale of scientific illiteracy and journalistic malfeasance.

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34 comments
1 Ojoe  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:09:00pm
flaws in the ointment

LOL

2 Ojoe  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:09:47pm

Fruit flaws like a banana.

3 Obdicut  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:10:10pm

The nitpicky arguments against AGW more and more resemble those against Darwinian evolution.

The science is ‘settled’ in layman’s terms. It is not ‘settled’ in scientists terms.

Darwinian evolution is ‘settled’, in that it occurs. It is not settled in how it occurs.

This seems to me to be a pretty understandable state of affairs, but it sure throws some folks into a tizzy.

4 jamesfirecat  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:11:19pm

re: #3 Obdicut

The nitpicky arguments against AGW more and more resemble those against Darwinian evolution.

The science is ‘settled’ in layman’s terms. It is not ‘settled’ in scientists terms.

Darwinian evolution is ‘settled’, in that it occurs. It is not settled in how it occurs.

This seems to me to be a pretty understandable state of affairs, but it sure throws some folks into a tizzy.

Yeah the rule of thumb is

“Are you a qualified expert in these matters? Because if not help yourself to a cup of STFU because as far as you can understand the issue the science is settled.”

5 jamesfirecat  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:11:34pm

re: #4 jamesfirecat

Yeah the rule of thumb is

“Are you a qualified expert in these matters? Because if not help yourself to a cup of STFU because as far as you can understand the issue the science is settled.”

Sorry I meant to say “the rule of thumb should be….”

6 Jimmah  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:30:22pm

It makes me laugh out loud when I see people talking about the ‘high priests of science’ and the ‘blind faith’ of ‘scientism’. A quick course in the enormous revolutions in scientific thinking, driven purely by new information, fresh observations and powerful theories that make better sense of the world than what we had before would seem to be in order for such dunderheads.

7 Jimmah  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:34:49pm

re: #6 Jimmah

Just in the last 100 years alone, I meant to add.

8 fizzlogic  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 6:42:02pm

The WSJ has been losing credibility even outside its editorial pages. It’s really sad they’re starting to lose readers who work in the financial markets.

9 The Sanity Inspector  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:02:49pm

As a scientific field progresses, it will be continuously refined, but will less and less frequently be completely overturned. Once again, here is Isaac Asimov’s The Relativity of Wrong.


The young specialist in English Lit, having quoted me, went on to lecture me severely on the fact that in every century people have thought they understood the universe at last, and in every century they were proved to be wrong. It follows that the one thing we can say about our modern “knowledge” is that it is wrong. The young man then quoted with approval what Socrates had said on learning that the Delphic oracle had proclaimed him the wisest man in Greece. “If I am the wisest man,” said Socrates, “it is because I alone know that I know nothing.” the implication was that I was very foolish because I was under the impression I knew a great deal.

My answer to him was, “John, when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.”

10 Ojoe  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:03:06pm

Slow thread.

11 Obdicut  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:04:45pm

re: #10 Ojoe

I think that everyone kind of gets, by now, the inherent dishonest of most of the attacks on AGW.

12 jaunte  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:11:12pm

Dennis Miller had Lord Monckton on his radio show tonight, advising parents how to deal with the ‘propaganda’ that they’re being told in school about global warming. He’s still using Al Gore’s film as a whipping horse.

13 jaunte  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:11:36pm

re: #12 jaunte

‘they’ being the parents’ children…

14 freetoken  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:14:37pm

re: #12 jaunte

Dennis Miller trying to use the wingnuts’ fear of science as a humor topic always falls flat. His ideology is preventing him from seeing how un-humorous so much of his schtick has become.

15 jaunte  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:16:17pm

re: #14 freetoken

It all sounded very plausible, if that radio station was one of the few sources of news someone listened to.

16 freetoken  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 7:19:54pm

re: #15 jaunte

And what is sad is that there probably are people for whom that radio station is their only source of information.

17 elizajane  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 8:02:36pm

re: #11 Obdicut

I think that everyone kind of gets, by now, the inherent dishonest of most of the attacks on AGW.

Yes, but it’s still good that Charles keeps posting this stuff. It’s one of the most important issues of our time, and just because it’s been hijacked by the “God-Wouldn’t-Let-Us-Destroy-His-Creation” nutters doesn’t mean we shouldn’t watch what’s going on. On the contrary, we unfortunately need to be hyper aware of how politics is taking over science, to figure out how to combat this.

Sometimes I wonder what historians will make of this episode, on a very messed-up planet 100 years from now. Or what our great-grand-children will say about our generation. Nothing good, I’m pretty sure. Has anybody read this new book that predicts that Britain will be torn apart not by class division but by generational division, as the youngsters punish the oldies who have robbed them and messed up their world? It sounds so plausible, only why limit it to Britain?

18 Moe Jerome and Larry  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 8:21:51pm

The reason they use the term “settled science” is for one reason and one reason only. Because that is what Al Gore has consistently said about AGW, using the term as a cop-out to avoid debate with scientists who question AGW.

It’s his way of saying, “Those guys are on the fringe and not worth debating because the “science is settled.”

I can’t believe that the author doesn’t know this. Gore’s only been saying it for the last decade or so.

19 Charles Johnson  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 8:27:25pm

re: #18 Moe Jerome and Larry

Another sleeper awakes. These threads are like alarm clocks.

20 Obdicut  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 8:27:38pm

re: #18 Moe Jerome and Larry

I’m sorry, I think by “Al Gore” you meant “98.5% of the publishing climatologists in the world”.

21 Moe Jerome and Larry  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 8:36:41pm

The first thing to do is go to the Google main page and start typing “science is settled.” You’ll see there’s only two terms that Google suggests for completion — “Al Gore” and “Gore.”

Gore is inextricably tied to that phrase. Click on any of the 373,000 results and you’ll see how often he makes that statement…and why.

22 Moe Jerome and Larry  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 8:53:59pm

re: #18 Moe Jerome and Larry

I’m sorry, I think by “Al Gore” you meant “98.5% of the publishing climatologists in the world”.

Obdictut, do you see the admission your making? The whole point of the column is that using the term “settle science” betrays a lack of understanding of “how science works.” If 98.5% of publishing climatologists use the phrase to defend AGW, then according to the author, they have a lack of understanding of “how science works.”

And, indeed, they do…as does Al Gore.

The author of this column doesn’t realize that it’s Al Gore who uses this phrase, and the Wall Street Journal and the Globe and Mail only use it to show the ridiculousness of Gore’s position.

Charles, I don’t think this column means what you think it means.

23 Obdicut  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 9:03:46pm

re: #22 Moe Jerome and Larry

Oh god. Way to miss the point by about a mile.

98.5% of climatologists will tell you that AGW is occurring.

24 Kronocide  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 9:04:47pm

Christopher Monckton had a whole hour on Dennis Miller today.

Dennis is great on so much other stuff, but this was bad, really bad.

25 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 9:27:28pm

I have to agree and disagree with the gist of the article presented here.

While on a purely philosophical level, science is never settled. There is the real world of collected observations that make a consistent picture. That does for all intents and purposes, outside of the purely philosophical indeed get settled eventually.

What I mean by that is that certain things have so very much observation behind them that one approaches what I will call a Cartesian limit.

By a Cartesian limit, I mean that the only way that all of those observations from so many different sources and tracks of understanding could all be consistently lying to us, is if we were actually living in a world that was dominated by something fooling all of our senses and instruments all of the time. The “evil genius” of Descartes would be the “real story” In more pedestrian terms, the only way that the “real world” could be different than all the data and observation we have is if we were all living in the Matrix.

An example of this might be the notion that the Earth is round.

There is no new discovery short of something that invalidates all other discoveries that could possibly change that. Another example might be that the Earth orbits the sun. Again, the only way for that not to be true, given all of the evidence that we have of it being true would be if everything, and by everything, I mean literally everything else was a lie.

So, as a purely philosophical argument, yes indeed, science is never fully settled and indeed we all might be disembodied brains floating on a ship somewhere being fed a virtual reality that completely fools our senses and makes a false virtual world.

That is true. However, it is unlikely and certainly useless to debate. For those who like to get lost in Cartesian doubt, I say stub your toe. It hurts doesn’t it? The pain is real enough.

26 iceweasel  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 9:32:41pm

re: #25 ludwigvanquixote

You know, Cartesian doubt never persuaded anyone to go ahead and stick their own hand in the fire, any more than Humean scepticism could persuade Hume to jump out his window.

Philosophical scepticism has its place— a very circumscribed one. We can talk in the abstract about how we don’t know there is such a thing as cause and effect— but we don’t live that way. For good reason.

27 Eclectic Infidel  Thu, Feb 18, 2010 10:59:13pm

Pickles!

G’night folks.

28 filetandrelease  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 7:00:14am

I always thought Al Gore was wrong.

29 eric  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 7:10:57am

“The science is settled, Gore told the lawmakers. Carbon-dioxide emissions — from cars, power plants, buildings and other sources — are heating the Earth’s atmosphere.”: NPR March 21, 2007.

So Al Gore is wrong?

Who are we to believe?

30 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 11:20:12am

re: #29 eric

Who are we to believe?

The legitimate scientific community of the entire world and all the data.

Now I underwtand that once someone comes out with crap like you just spewed, you will never ever look at actual science - the stuff from scientists and scientific journals and organizations, the stuff with proof and evidence.

The stuff that is not political. Numbers are not members of political parties.

Since you will not look at such things, I will cut to the chase.

You are a typical willfully blind, delusional right wing robot. Your message is one that will kill billions of innocent people. This makes you not only ignorant, but a party to evil.

31 eric  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 2:06:56pm

re: #30 LudwigVanQuixote

Wow..Ludwig..easy there gunner, point that lance at some other windmill. Where to begin with this one?

Let me get back to you. I have conference call in a few minutes.

32 FullRoller  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 2:33:40pm

The great and wonderful Goracle has spoken. If only he made some actual sense. You all notice how his Nobel prize was NOT for Science, right? re: #29 eric

33 FullRoller  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 4:22:30pm

And now direct from the EPA today:

The Environmental Protection Agency, responding complaints about its December findings about the threat of greenhouse gases, issued a statement Friday saying that the “science is settled” and “greenhouse gases pose a real threat to the American people.”

Yeah, the science is settled……….

34 rjpv  Fri, Feb 19, 2010 10:21:12pm

I am really impressed by some of these comments! This is a fascinating topic.

I think it is difficult to get at the idea of “settled science” without also thinking about the philosophical basis of science. For instance, what is a scientific fact? Or, in this case, we should ask: how is a scientific theory proven?

Popper’s falsifiability model is probably best - a scientific theory is one that can be tested and thus disproved. One result of this model is that no theory is ever irrefutably “proven” because there might be a test conducted tomorrow that contradicts it. Still, a theory that has been repeatedly tested and has produced novel and accurate predictions, can be considered an established theory.

So I’d argue that it is wrong to dismiss claims of “settled science” with the simple claim that scientific theories can never be proven. While technically correct, at some point Occam’s razor comes into play and it is inconceivable for a theory such as the theory of gravity to be wrong (as has already been noted). The theory of AGW may not have reached this lofty level, but that doesn’t mean it is unattainable.


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