James Randi and Global Warming

Environment • Views: 2,681

As someone who’s always had a great deal of respect for skeptic James Randi, I was disappointed to read his piece at the JREF Swift Blog: AGW, Revisited.

Randi cites the Petition Project (a bogus list of “skeptical scientists” packed with ringers, frauds, and people who never even signed it) as one of his main reasons for doubting the reality of global warming:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — a group of thousands of scientists in 194 countries around the world, and recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize — has issued several comprehensive reports in which they indicate that they have become convinced that “global warming” is and will be seriously destructive to life as we know it, and that Man is the chief cause of it. They say that there is a consensus of scientists who believe we are headed for disaster if we do not stop burning fossil fuels, but a growing number of prominent scientists disagree. Meanwhile, some 32,000 scientists, 9,000 of them PhDs, have signed The Petition Project statement proclaiming that Man is not necessarily the chief cause of warming, that the phenomenon may not exist at all, and that, in any case, warming would not be disastrous. …

I strongly suspect that The Petition Project may be valid.

This, of course, was akin to a bomb being dropped in the middle of the “skeptical community.” And naturally, I immediately received several emails (some more polite than others), gloating over Randi’s “debunking” of global warming.

I held off writing about it because I knew Randi’s associates would soon be setting him straight on the deliberately deceptive Petition Project and his other misinformed claims, and sure enough, Phil Plait had a very good post yesterday: Randi, skepticism, and global warming | Bad Astronomy.

Yesterday, James Randi posted an entry on the JREF’s Swift blog about global warming. In it, he expressed some doubt over the consensus that humans are causing global warming. He does not doubt that warming is happening, as he made clear, just the role of humans in that change.

Unfortunately, one source he used in his essay was the Petition Project. This was an attempt by global warming denialists to muddy the climate issue, and one that has been thoroughly trashed — it’s really just as awful as the similarly ridiculous, and just as thoroughly nonsensical, attempt by the Discovery Institute to get a petition by scientists who doubt evolution. Randi also made a claim about the complexity of global warming, and how difficult it is to model, casting some uncertainty on it. As he said, this makes it very difficult for someone not well-versed in the field to come to a well-informed decision on climate change.

Read Phil’s entire post, because he makes several other excellent points.

And Randi has now walked back his earlier post, as I expected, making it clear that he’s not denying the reality of global warming after all, and that he was mistaken to cite the Petition Project: I Am Not ‘Denying’ Anything.

However, I also recommend reading Orac at ScienceBlogs, for more on Randi’s second post: James Randi, anthropogenic global warming, and skepticism, revisited one last time (I hope).

PZ Myers also has some interesting comments: Randi responds.

The short version: even a noted skeptic like James Randi can be misled by the astounding amounts of confusion being fed into the national debate on global warming by special interest groups. Which makes it all the more important to try to cut through the noise and become educated about the actual scientific evidence — and that’s the reason behind my focus on this subject recently.

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105 comments
1 The Sanity Inspector  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:12:54am

For those who've never heard of him, James Randi had a first career as a stage magician, and then as a professional skeptic debunking psychics and phony faith healers. His takedown of Peter Popoff was a service to humanity:

So yes, he is one sharp customer. If even he can be befuddled by the static surrounding AGW, I don't feel so bad about my own misgivings.

3 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:14:09am

re: #2 Alouette

Penn & Teller think AGW is "bullshit"


[Video]

Penn and Teller are wrong on this in any number of ways.

4 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:14:21am

re: #2 Alouette

Penn has backtracked a bit off of his position.

5 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:15:17am

re: #3 LudwigVanQuixote

LVQ: in case you missed it downstairs, a link to keep in you back pocket:

Dr. Alley's Lecture at the 2009 AGU conference

6 lostlakehiker  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:16:48am

Can anyone refute the editorial in today's Wall Street Journal, an editorial claiming that Soon and Baliuskas (names may be only approximately spelled) were persecuted for having doubted AGW, and that the journal "Climate Science" presents peer reviewed scientific articles just like any other scientific publication?

It has to be off the mark, but detailed refutations for some of the claims made would be nice.

7 Digital Display  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:17:45am

Phil turned me on to James Randi.. i admire him for setting the record straight with him and addressing this.
Nice job Phil

8 Killgore Trout  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:18:17am

re: #2 Alouette

Penn & Teller think AGW is "bullshit"


[Video]

Yeah, skeptics have some problems. It's interesting to see exceptionally smart people like Penn Gillette and Randi fall for stupid stuff. Especially when it comes to politics skeptics can be really stupid. Penn is a friend of Glenn Beck. Go figure.

9 Sharmuta  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:18:47am

re: #5 freetoken

LVQ: in case you missed it downstairs, a link to keep in you back pocket:

Dr. Alley's Lecture at the 2009 AGU conference

It's very good so far- thanks for linking and recommending it.

10 lawhawk  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:19:41am

If the professional skeptics can get sidetracked and taken for the ride, what hope is there for most people who only casually follow issues such as this? All most people do is read headlines, see lots of money being thrown around and throw up their hands and shrug.

11 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:22:52am

"The Sky is Falling!
The Sky is Falling!"
Chicken Little

"The Earth is Warming!
The Earth is Warming!"
Al Gore

AGW is BS, in my opinion.
I don't need James Randi, or Penn and Teller.
It's a fraud.
Al Gore is a fraud.
Some scientists have a legitimate concern, but they have not proven a thing.
They are still investigating, and I encourage them to continue.

But I don't trust the UN and/or the Welfare State governments of the west to jump in with half-baked solutions to something that isn't very well understood.
They have a lot of work to do before they will gain my trust.

12 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:23:03am

Charles,

I laud your goal of getting the real science out there. I don't have the time to do it today, but I will be sending you a compilation of all the links anyone could want if they wanted to delve into this from the most basic to up and up journal papers.

Most of these will be things I have linked to here many times. However, it would likely be useful to have a LGF list of handy references for anyone interested in actually looking more deeply or even for the first time. Not to mention, helpful for us who rebut all the nonsense all the time to have a nice hand set of references.

Here are some to start with:

[Link: www.realclimate.org...]

[Link: scienceblogs.com...]

[Link: www.ncdc.noaa.gov...]

[Link: climate.nasa.gov...]

[Link: earthguide.ucsd.edu...]

[Link: www.aip.org...]

[Link: www.gfdl.noaa.gov...]

[Link: www.pnas.org...]

I'll update this with a list of useful current papers.

13 Slap  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:23:06am

re: #10 lawhawk

True enough, unfortunately. And the deniers have so thoroughly sidetracked the discussion and hijacked the language that even reasoned discussion gets completely lost in semantic nitpicking.

14 ignoranceisfatal  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:23:33am

re: #6 lostlakehiker

Can anyone refute the editorial in today's Wall Street Journal, an editorial claiming that Soon and Baliuskas (names may be only approximately spelled) were persecuted for having doubted AGW, and that the journal "Climate Science" presents peer reviewed scientific articles just like any other scientific publication?

It has to be off the mark, but detailed refutations for some of the claims made would be nice.

Why, I believe I have something lying around... oh yes! Here it is:
Video: Are Climatologists Censoring Scientific Journals? (A: No)

15 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:24:02am

re: #9 Sharmuta

In this lecture he tackles the often voiced "but carbon lags temperature" claim that deniers like to trot out.

16 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:24:22am

re: #11 friarstale

"The Sky is Falling!
The Sky is Falling!"
Chicken Little

"The Earth is Warming!
The Earth is Warming!"
Al Gore

AGW is BS, in my opinion.
I don't need James Randi, or Penn and Teller.
It's a fraud.
Al Gore is a fraud.
Some scientists have a legitimate concern, but they have not proven a thing.
They are still investigating, and I encourage them to continue.

But I don't trust the UN and/or the Welfare State governments of the west to jump in with half-baked solutions to something that isn't very well understood.
They have a lot of work to do before they will gain my trust.

Tell you what, read the links I just gave, which are full of real and accurate science, from real scientists. Then if you actually learn the science we can talk about policy.

17 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:28:42am

re: #10 lawhawk

Generally speaking, even articulate people (like Randi) are not very well educated in science. To compound this problem, over the last 100 years or so the breadth and depth of scientific research has increased so much that generalists, or natural philosophers, are rare.

Secondly, science remains esoteric to the daily lives of most people, who are busy making money or spending it.

Remember too, you're living in a country where about half the population rejects evolution, though it is a cornerstone of biology and thus of all applications of biology.

It does not surprise me that Randi was taken in by the "petition", because unless one is aware of the current culture war over climatology then one wouldn't know about the "petition(s)".

18 ignoranceisfatal  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:31:19am

I think that one of the reasons skeptics like Randi get sucked in to AGW doubt is that the (mostly legitimate) warnings about future consequences sound a lot like the (mostly illegitimate) claims from fringe groups. Their BS detector goes off, they don't have the scientific background to properly assess the evidence, and so they revert to their natural state of skepticism.

19 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:32:00am

Some more very useful links: These are more "grown up"

State of the climate:

[Link: www.ncdc.noaa.gov...]

The hockey stick:

[Link: www.pnas.org...]

Review of global temp trends:

[Link: www.pnas.org...]

Trends of forcing agents:

[Link: www.pnas.org...]

Agricultural effects:

[Link: www.agcarbonmarkets.com...]

20 ignoranceisfatal  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:33:12am

I was unclear in #18. What I meant to convey was that statements about the consequences of AGW can sound similar to doomsday predictions (unrelated to global warming) made by cranks.

21 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:35:13am

re: #18 ignoranceisfatal

re: #20 ignoranceisfatal

So they could take the bold and unprecedented step of actually learning the science before shooting off their mouths!

Can you imagine people saying, "hmmm, I don't know, maybe I should know something about this before I make noise?"

22 Sheila Broflovski  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:37:09am

re: #16 LudwigVanQuixote

Tell you what, read the links I just gave, which are full of real and accurate science, from real scientists. Then if you actually learn the science we can talk about policy.

What can an ordinary individual do?

I already had 9 kids and that's just too bad, but I'm not sorry!

23 Mark Pennington  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:40:26am
By Penn Jillette
July 3, 2008
From: The Los Angeles Times

Climate change? Once more, ‘I don’t know’

24 Daniel Ballard  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:41:27am

From the LA Times today-Shows how at least one Chinese person views AGW-
"Europe will become as cold as Siberia. Much arable land will disappear and the continent will no longer be fit for human habitation," a Chinese blogger who writes under the name Feitie Zhiyi suggested in a posting last week. "China should emit more CO2 and make the world warmer! This will only do good to China and bring nothing bad.

"As for the Europeans, it's better to freeze all of them to death!"

More heat than light from our Chinese "friends".

25 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:42:25am

re: #22 Alouette

What can an ordinary individual do?

I already had 9 kids and that's just too bad, but I'm not sorry!

Alouette, I am absolutely not telling you to regret you children! Don't be silly!

What you can do, step one, is get educated on the science. Do this so you are real with it. Presumably you want your children and grand children to inherit a better world. And while we are at it, you know how much Eretz Y'Israel depends on rain. You care to look at the projections for there in the next 50 years? They are not good.


Step two is be certain to tell your congress critter that you know the science and you expect real action.

Step three, I am willing to bet that a woman of your education and intelligence could come up with several dozen ways that you yourself, could save energy and water, pollute less and frankly buy less crap from Chinese and Indian sweat shops.

Step four. Tell your friends what you know.

This is absolutely like the two mountains Alouette. There is a blessing and a curse before us. We should choose life for our children and grand children.

26 Spare O'Lake  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:45:20am

re: #22 Alouette

What can an ordinary individual do?

I already had 9 kids and that's just too bad, but I'm not sorry!

There is nothing ordinary about having 9 children.

27 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:52:44am

re: #23 beekiller

this is very good, beekiller, thank you

28 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:55:18am

re: #16 LudwigVanQuixote

read Chicken Little and tell me that's not what's going on here

29 SixDegrees  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:55:38am

re: #10 lawhawk

If the professional skeptics can get sidetracked and taken for the ride, what hope is there for most people who only casually follow issues such as this? All most people do is read headlines, see lots of money being thrown around and throw up their hands and shrug.

See my post downstairs. Bitch-slapping people because they don't understand the science is about as futile a strategy as I can imagine. Not to mention a complete waste of time. Whatever problem there may be, it isn't a scientific one. It's a political one, and that's the arena it'll be fought in.

30 The Sanity Inspector  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 11:56:42am

re: #26 Spare O'Lake

There is nothing ordinary about having 9 children.

Not anymore, maybe. But go back two or three generations and look again.

The world is as many times new as there are children in our lives.
--Robert Brault

Every child comes with the message that God is not yet discouraged of man.
Rabindranath Tagore

31 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:00:43pm

re: #28 friarstale

read Chicken Little and tell me that's not what's going on here

That isn't what is going on here at all.

Chicken little is a fairy tale. This is real science and the real science tells us that the likely consequences of inaction are vastly worse than a what happens in fairy tales.

So don't get snarky with me or pretend that this comment you made was clever. I have little patience for those who refuse to look at the facts.

Right here, on this very thread are about a dozen links that can easily tell you the story backed with data and methodology. Some of the links are dedicated to debunking misinformation.

Some are full first courses in the topic at a freshman level.

Others are direct links to the state of the climate and current data.

Yet others are peer reviewed professional science papers.

Read them. Learn it. Don't be proud of your ignorance or presuppositions until you have learned this.

32 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:00:53pm

re: #21 LudwigVanQuixote

I have a suggestion, Noah:
Build your Ark.
And when the coast lines rise, you'll be ready.

And don't feel bad; Noah had skeptics who laughed at him, but when the flood came and he and his family peacefully floated away in the Ark, Noah had the last laugh.

33 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:02:22pm

re: #32 friarstale

In other words you refuse to look at the science. How intelligent.

Ignorance and arrogance coupled with rudeness in one tiny package.

34 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:02:37pm

re: #28 friarstale

read Chicken Little and tell me that's not what's going on here

Well chicken little said the sky is falling. How are you certain that's not happening?

Just because you say "I don't buy it" doesn't mean it's not true. You could say that the earth is flat too...

Provide us with evidence and we'll discuss but I think you'll have a hard time finding any.

35 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:04:03pm

re: #32 friarstale

I have a suggestion, Noah:
Build your Ark.
And when the coast lines rise, you'll be ready.

And don't feel bad; Noah had skeptics who laughed at him, but when the flood came and he and his family peacefully floated away in the Ark, Noah had the last laugh.

How ironic: the ark was a method to save civilization from an environmental catastrophe created by man's behavior....

36 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:04:26pm

re: #31 LudwigVanQuixote

no, I'll tell you right now:
I am right.
You are wrong.

What is the worst that can happen?
The sea levels rise?
In Egypt they're excavating the flooded ruins of Alexandria, so it's nothing that's never happened before.

Let's suppose I believe 100% in AGW (I don't, but suppose I do) I still say so what? What is the worst that will happen? We have a longer growing season in Alaska?

37 Obdicut  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:05:15pm

re: #36 friarstale

Jesus, it's like an encyclopedia of weak-ass denier arguments.

38 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:06:50pm

re: #33 LudwigVanQuixote

science?
you give me a list of 10 blogs and tell me "run along, kid, come back after you read 10 blogs?"

and I'm arrogant?

You are arrogant, Don Quixote, and you are tilting at a very big windmill: the climate of the whole earth! That's arrogance, my friend.
You are very very arrogant.

39 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:08:15pm

re: #38 friarstale

Why are the mean temperatures of the Earth and Moon surface different?

40 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:10:20pm

re: #38 friarstale

BTW, if you don't want to just read blogs, I put up a link to a lecture from Tuesday at the AGU meeting. You are invited to watch it.

41 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:10:22pm

re: #35 Cineaste

um, I'm fully aware of the irony I employed... are you?
in other words, if you're so certain of your position, get ready to save yourself

if you can save yourself, then you will have the last laugh

if not, then perhaps your story is more like The Miller's Tale
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Miller's_Tale

42 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:10:55pm

re: #36 friarstale

Even more ignorance and arrogance.

The wost that can happen is hundreds of millions to billions of refugees, loss of coastal cities, including places like NY and LA, drastic reduction in food production (there is even a paper linked to this from the National Academy up above) drastic reduction in fresh water supply world wide - including the entire American south west and large portions of our Midwest, spread of contaigion as disease vectors migrate to new habitats and large scale destruction of the oceans through ocean anoxia.

In other words, the worst that can happen is that billions die in wars, famines, lagues and fights for water as the entire global economy collapses and any modern state that wishes to survive, becomes of necessity a police state.

Why not read the science? It is all there.

43 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:11:27pm

re: #37 Obdicut

are you an AGW is BS denier?
it sounds like you deny that AGW is BS

44 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:12:31pm

re: #38 friarstale

Blogs, lol... there are official pages from NASA, NOAA and universities there. There are also real live journal papers. The blogs are there because they are very basic and would fit your level of understanding.

45 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:12:41pm

re: #42 LudwigVanQuixote

hundreds of millions to billions of refugees,

oh my gosh! All at once?
or over how long a period of time?

don't you see how ridiculous you sound?

46 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:14:07pm

re: #44 LudwigVanQuixote

my level of understanding?
my friend, you are the person in need of understanding

you are being fooled

47 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:14:44pm

re: #46 friarstale

Are you ignoring my question because you don't know the answer?

48 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:17:41pm

re: #47 freetoken

enlighten me, oh wise sayer of sooth

49 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:18:24pm

re: #45 friarstale

oh my gosh! All at once?
or over how long a period of time?

don't you see how ridiculous you sound?

Actually, we are going to see the refugee crisis worsen over the 50-100 years. The mid range predictions have global sea levels rising on the order of 1.5 meters to 2 meters by the end of the century. So ask yourself how many American cities that would take out? How about one meter? Also, we would likely because of the non-linear nature of the ice melts, see dramatically punctuated melting events. That basically means that many coastal cities could be washed out in the space of a decade. When that decade is is not fully know, but it is due sometime this century. When that happens there will be hundreds of millions of refugees.

We are already seeing it now in places like Bangladesh.

Why not read some of the papers given? They cover this.

Care to learn the science or continue to say stupid and ignorant things?

50 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:20:26pm

re: #48 friarstale

There are many resources at your disposal, including many links here.

That you feel you must strike out against others is about a clear a sign as possible of someone who has their back to a wall.

You feel intimidated, unsure, and altogether unconfident to actually discuss the issue at hand.

Unfortunately the internet enables you to treat people in a manner you might not do in person.

51 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:22:34pm

re: #40 freetoken

BTW, if you don't want to just read blogs, I put up a link to a lecture from Tuesday at the AGU meeting. You are invited to watch it.

He doesn't want to read. He doesn't want to learn the science. He wants to vent his nonsense.

52 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:23:27pm

re: #49 LudwigVanQuixote

Care to learn the science or continue to say stupid and ignorant things?

I haven't said a single stupid or ignorant thing.
You are being insulting.

You just admitted that there is no emergency, but these things will happen gradually over time. Thank you for being honest.

53 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:26:41pm

re: #50 freetoken

That you feel you must strike out against others is about a clear a sign as possible of someone who has their back to a wall

who did I strike out against?
you asked me what was the reason for the difference in temperature between the earth and the moon.
Go ahead, tell me, make me smarter, enlighten me.

39 freetoken
Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:08:15pm replyquote 1downupfavoritereport

re: #38 friarstale

Why are the mean temperatures of the Earth and Moon surface different?

54 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:27:21pm

re: #52 friarstale

I haven't said a single stupid or ignorant thing.

Denying the science is ignorant. Assuming that what will happen will be some cake walk that does not constitute an emergency is stupid.

You are being insulting.

No I am being factual. You are ignorant and you refuse to learn the actual science.

You just admitted that there is no emergency, but these things will happen gradually over time. Thank you for being honest.

And you are so intensely stupid you think you have some sort of gotcha...
Why don't you read what I wrote and process it? When you decide I was lying, why not look at the actual science?

Just look at the science without being such an idiot.

55 Basho  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:27:34pm

Randi changed his opinions when presented with refutations and facts.

YOU WANT TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SKEPTIC AND DENIER?? THAT'S THE DIFFERENCE! NOW STOP WHINING AT BEING CALLED DENIERS!!

(you know who you are)

56 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:27:52pm

re: #50 freetoken

Unfortunately the internet enables you to treat people in a manner you might not do in person.

I would say these things anywhere, for I believe them.

57 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:30:06pm

re: #56 friarstale

I would say these things anywhere, for I believe them.

LOL, so sayeth the shepherd, so sayeth the flock!

Look the reason that Free asked why the temp on the moon is different than the Earth was to try to get you to think. What is different about the two?

Can you think for yourself?

Can you think?

Do you think?

I think not.

58 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:31:14pm

re: #54 LudwigVanQuixote

you are very insulting
you are not a very good spokesperson for your cause
you are embarassing yourself
do not let a fool like me raise your blood pressure

a billion people misplaced over 100 years? That's only 10 million a year. It's ridiculous.
more people than that go through O'Hare airport every year

59 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:32:56pm

re: #57 LudwigVanQuixote

LOL, so sayeth the shepherd, so sayeth the flock!

Look the reason that Free asked why the temp on the moon is different than the Earth was to try to get you to think. What is different about the two?

Can you think for yourself?

Can you think?

Do you think?

I think not.

Wait wait I know this one!
It's because the Moon imposed a UN proposed Cap and Trade System and the Earth did not, right?

60 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:34:44pm

re: #58 friarstale

you are very insulting
you are not a very good spokesperson for your cause
you are embarassing yourself
do not let a fool like me raise your blood pressure

a billion people misplaced over 100 years? That's only 10 million a year. It's ridiculous.
more people than that go through O'Hare airport every year

You are still not understanding what was said by punctuated melting. And you neglect the loss of food supply and fresh water inland as well as spread of contagion.

There is more going on then the one piece you still do not understand.

But don't let me stop you from your ranting. You see someone who cared and cared to learn would take the time to learn the science. You do not. So what is there to say to you? You are a fool and a rude and smug one at that.

61 Basho  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:36:29pm

For the deniers out there:

Image: betterworld.jpeg

62 bklynkid  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:38:31pm

For all you believers why don't you google Leonard Weinstein and read what he has examined. What is so evident is that most of you do not know what the scientific method is.....one puts out a theory and try to prove it with experimentation, data etc. Its published and then peers take the data etc. and try to see if they reach the same result. Since the original data is not available and been reviewed and tested by non partison scientists I remain a denier.

63 Stuart Leviton  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:39:57pm

re: #51 LudwigVanQuixote

He doesn't want to read. He doesn't want to learn the science. He wants to vent his nonsense.

LudwigVan, your knowledge impresses me but your wisdom even more so. I easily become impatient and act foolishly. But you are handling the discussion with friar with rational discourse and grace. Thank you for teaching the wisdom

love truth and peace (Zechariah 8:19)


What is your secret? How are you able to act so kindly?

64 freetoken  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:40:38pm

re: #62 bklynkid

Since the original data is not available ...

That is a lie.

There are libraries full of data.

Paleoclimate and meteorological and astrophysical...

You refuse to acknowledge that.

65 Basho  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:45:05pm

re: #62 bklynkid

Err... one puts out a hypothesis. A strongly supported hypothesis then becomes a theory.

66 lostlakehiker  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:49:44pm

re: #28 friarstale

read Chicken Little and tell me that's not what's going on here

Here's the thing. There are two questions at issue, and you have to think about them one at a time.

The first question is whether the earth is warming because of our CO2 emissions. This is a technical and scientific question and it has a technical, scientific answer: sure looks like yes. Make that 95% certain, maybe more. Reasons? They can get long and technical, and people work very hard and think things through to a depth that you'd find astonishing. I do technical work and know others who do likewise, and honest, it's not BS. In fact, we have good "technical BS" meters and when we look at the technical work of these guys warning of AGW, our technical BS meter registers no complaint.

But there's a simpler reason: Google "glacier retreat" or go to Wikipedia and check out some facts that are beyond dispute: almost all the world's glaciers are retreating. Google "CO2" and you may confirm that CO2, while it's nice and transparent, just like N2 and O2, in the visible spectrum, the IR story is very different. CO2 really is "cloudy" in those colors our eyes don't see. These two facts, just the two of them, are enough to prove that human-caused warming could very well be real.

Now we come to the second question: what should we do about it? Here, BS meters are going off like crazy, mine too, because the recommendations are coming from all quarters. Hugo Chavez thinks the answer is socialism. But how can State ownership of oilfields make any real difference? Al Gore thinks the answer is to plant many trees, and give him a cut of each. Many of the proposed solutions are expensive, or silly, or both.

Now here's where you and all the other intelligent skeptics come in. Think of this as the topic for a debate team: Assuming, for the purposes of today's debate, that AGW (anthropogenic warming) is real, which response is most prudent?

(A) Let it ride. Something will come up. Or if nothing comes up, apres nous, le deluge. [Your vote, unless I miss my guess.]

(B) Scale back consumption of fossil fuels a little. Something will come up, or if nothing comes up, we've at least bought time for something to come up later. [Kyoto, as projected. Kyoto, in the event, was "A"]

(C) Scale back fossil fuel consumption drastically. Fuel rationing. Home heating rationing. Taxes, heavy taxes, on any emission of CO2. The private market will supply electricity from wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, etc. because with competition from fossil fuels off the table, it becomes profitable. Civilization will stumble, then catch its balance, and after a hard decade or two we'll be out of the woods. [The answer offered by the Greens]
(D) Scale back consumption of fossil fuels a little, and go all out on R&D to develop better versions of what we now have in the way of green energy, including nuclear. Then implement some version of (C), after alternatives such as electric cars and much more robust power grids to carry the electricity around are in place. [the answer offered by the Hard Greens]

(E) Prepare to ride it out. Retreat from coastlines. Don't put anything that's expensive and meant to last a century on land at elevation of less than 20 feet above sea level. Heck, make that 50. Genetically engineer crops that can tolerate warmer climates and resist the pests that will proliferate in such climates. [Bjorn Lomborg and company]

(F) Deny everything, drill baby drill, cut the coal. Show everybody your machismo. [Those voting this way know who they are.]

67 Girth  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 12:49:46pm

re: #62 bklynkid

For all you believers why don't you google Leonard Weinstein and read what he has examined. What is so evident is that most of you do not know what the scientific method is...one puts out a theory and try to prove it with experimentation, data etc. Its published and then peers take the data etc. and try to see if they reach the same result. Since the original data is not available and been reviewed and tested by non partison scientists I remain a denier.

Wrong. Try again.

68 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:01:15pm

re: #41 friarstale

um, I'm fully aware of the irony I employed... are you?
in other words, if you're so certain of your position, get ready to save yourself

if you can save yourself, then you will have the last laugh

if not, then perhaps your story is more like The Miller's Tale
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Miller's_Tale

By this reasoning we shouldn't have an army, or OSHA, or police, or, well, any government.

There are certain things which we, as individuals cannot provide for. You need a larger entity to coordinate them. Take national defense, we can all choose to participate but without some organization from the government we will not have adequate protection for all of us. Dealing with climate change is the same.

69 SixDegrees  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:03:47pm

re: #62 bklynkid

For all you believers why don't you google Leonard Weinstein and read what he has examined. What is so evident is that most of you do not know what the scientific method is...one puts out a theory and try to prove it with experimentation, data etc. Its published and then peers take the data etc. and try to see if they reach the same result. Since the original data is not available and been reviewed and tested by non partison scientists I remain a denier.

Not exactly.

That the original raw data used wasn't archived is somewhat problematic from the standpoint of reproducibility. However, the researchers claim it can be reproduced by going back to the original sources and compiling it again if required.

Even if not, precise duplication isn't really a requirement of reproducibility. If other researchers performed similar - but not identical - sampling of the original data sources, and derived similar results using similar methods, that would certainly count as a valid reproduction of the original experiment. One could be even more precise about such a conclusion by doing a statistical analysis of the data and determining whether the probability that such an independent sampling would yield results within the bounds found, if one wished.

Gregor Mendel's experiments with pea inheritance, for example, form the foundation of modern genetics. We still have the raw data Mendel collected in his notebooks, and modern statistical analysis strongly suggests that Mendel was, to be polite, a bit overzealous in the samples he chose to hang onto versus those he chose to throw away; they're just "too good," too close to the actual hypothesis to have arisen naturally.

Given that other groups have used the same original datasets and have come up with statistically similar results, despite using varying selection criteria and modeling, lends support to the conclusion that the CRU results are legitimate.

Dumping the actual raw data that was the basis for their research was an example of sloppy data management processes, and one that likely won't be repeated in the future. But that alone doesn't necessarily imply that the results themselves are wrong. There's no direct connection between the two things.

70 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:04:10pm

re: #52 friarstale

You just admitted that there is no emergency, but these things will happen gradually over time. Thank you for being honest.

If you knew your house was going to burn down, but it was going to happen one room at a time over the course of a month - you'd still do something about it, wouldn't you?

71 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:04:37pm

re: #66 lostlakehiker

ah, now there's a reply I can appreciate
you didn't call me an idiot

actually, I must confess (at least to you, who deserves an honest answer) that I am sympathetic to the idea of AGW, but I am not convinced that things like the Asian Brown Cloud (which was mentioned here not long ago) should not be addressed at the same time that we try to get the developed world to curb their emissions.
The problem with Kyoto years ago, and it looks like the same thing is happening with Copenhagen, is that the Chinese and India were let off the hook, making things things seem more political than scientific

as for the glaciers, I've mentioned before that where I live, the land was once under a mile of ice, and there were no SUVs back when it melted, so what caused it?

yeah, you can put me in the (A) camp for now, especially since you did so without gratuitous name-calling

72 Almost Killed by Space Hookers  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:05:01pm

re: #63 Stuart Leviton

What is your secret? How are you able to act so kindly?

lol, I have blown up at these types way too many times.

73 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:06:40pm

re: #68 Cineaste

By this reasoning we shouldn't have an army, or OSHA, or police, or, well, any government.

oh, this is too funny:

if I don't believe in AGW then I don't believe in the need for government?

74 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:06:44pm

re: #62 bklynkid

Since the original data is not available and been reviewed and tested by non partison scientists I remain a denier.

Wrong.

Here's a big chunk of the original data. Test away.

[Link: data.giss.nasa.gov...]

75 friarstale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:08:01pm

re: #72 LudwigVanQuixote

he was being sarcastic, Ludwig

76 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:08:09pm

re: #73 friarstale

oh, this is too funny:

if I don't believe in AGW then I don't believe in the need for government?

No, that's not what I said. You said that if we believe in global warming, like Noah, then we can individually act, like Noah, to stop it. I pointed out that there are any number of things that the government is needed for to effectively coordinate large-scale action.

77 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:10:03pm

re: #71 friarstale

as for the glaciers, I've mentioned before that where I live, the land was once under a mile of ice, and there were no SUVs back when it melted, so what caused it?

Actually, if you do just a little bit of reading on the subject, the cause of ice ages historically is quite well understood.

78 FriarsTale  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:12:22pm

re: #77 Cineaste

well, then you are with me and do not believe in this AGW nonsense
Glaciers melt, it's what they do

79 Girth  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:19:21pm

re: #78 FriarsTale

well, then you are with me and do not believe in this AGW nonsense
Glaciers melt, it's what they do

Leaves fall on your driveway every fall, but the wind has always blown them away in the past. One day there are leaves on your driveway when you go to work in the morning, but they are gone when you get home.

Except it wasn't the wind this time. Your neighbor came by and blew them away with his brand new Stihl backpack blower that he loves using.

The point is that you use this glacier melting point to dismiss AGW, when to do so is a fallacy.

80 Stuart Leviton  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:23:56pm

re: #72 LudwigVanQuixote
Shabat Shalom. You're great, man!

81 Stuart Leviton  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:25:59pm

re: #75 friarstale

he was being sarcastic, Ludwig


Sorry to disagree with you, Friar. But I am enjoying reading the interchange and admire your strength and intelligence.

82 Obdicut  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:28:33pm

re: #81 Stuart Leviton

Friar is displaying no strength or intelligence. Just trolling.

83 lostlakehiker  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:30:43pm

re: #45 friarstale

oh my gosh! All at once?
or over how long a period of time?

don't you see how ridiculous you sound?

What's ridiculous is the notion that nothing bad can possibly happen, because it just won't.

IF the world's seas rise 50 feet say, then most of Bangladesh WILL be flooded. Since the place now supports 100 million people, there you are. And it's not just Bangladesh. There goes most of Florida, a lot of Lousiana, a fair bite out of Texas, South Carolina, etc. There goes London. The Netherlands? Sayonara.

You say, no problem. These people can just go somewhere else. But what if India does not want 100 million Bangladeshi immigrants? India, believe it or not, has enough mouths to feed as it is. And this flooding would take out a lot of India's farmland as well.

You say, God would not permit it? After Auschwitz, you say that?

You say we're just saying this to scare you. That's actually the response of many people to threat. Freeze. Amanda Ripley's book "Unthinkable: Who survives when disaster strikes--and why" gives a good explanation in terms of hardwired mammalian brain circuitry.

People have actually sat at their dinner tables and not moved, even when the flames engulfed them in a hotel fire, and even though they were warned by a hotel employee in plenty of time to have walked away.

Let's not do the civilizational equivalent, OK?

84 Cineaste  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:31:57pm

re: #78 FriarsTale

well, then you are with me and do not believe in this AGW nonsense
Glaciers melt, it's what they do

Fires burn, it's what they do. Doesn't mean that you want someone lighting one in your house.

85 [deleted]  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:33:37pm
86 [deleted]  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:37:54pm
87 lostlakehiker  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:42:40pm

re: #71 friarstale

ah, now there's a reply I can appreciate
you didn't call me an idiot

actually, I must confess (at least to you, who deserves an honest answer) that I am sympathetic to the idea of AGW, but I am not convinced that things like the Asian Brown Cloud (which was mentioned here not long ago) should not be addressed at the same time that we try to get the developed world to curb their emissions.
The problem with Kyoto years ago, and it looks like the same thing is happening with Copenhagen, is that the Chinese and India were let off the hook, making things things seem more political than scientific

as for the glaciers, I've mentioned before that where I live, the land was once under a mile of ice, and there were no SUVs back when it melted, so what caused it?

yeah, you can put me in the (A) camp for now, especially since you did so without gratuitous name-calling

Nobody ever said that AGW was the only way the globe could ever warm. When you cover up enough of the earth's rock with ice, and reduce the rate of evaporation from the seas by covering a lot of that with ice caps, you get less rain. Less rain, falling on cooler ground, means that the weathering cycle that constantly draws CO2 out of the atmosphere naturally is slowed. Meanwhile, volcanoes, which put fresh CO2 into the atmosphere off and on, are still doing their thing. Once an ice age has set in, for whatever reason, atmospheric CO2 tends to go up. Also, the lineup of the earth's orbit with summer and winter, which was probably most favorable to cool summers that allow snowfall to survive until the next winter, slips out of alignment as time goes by and that natural cycle moves around to hotter summers. Put those two things together and you don't have to use an SUV to end an ice age.

I'm in a mix of C and D camp. Build the technology, then build the new infrastructure, then wean ourselves from fossil fuel. Since this will be too slow to altogether avert the AGW pulse, also spend some on mitigation.

The drawback to A is that if AGW is real, we end up being forced into B, which would mean considerable hardship for almost everybody while the crash program of moving to the new infrastructure take priority.

Or, worse yet, we fall into E, and as things go bad, war and preparation for war takes priority over building new infrastructure.

The nice thing about C is that we would have had to do "C" anyhow, sooner or later, when we hit "peak coal". So even though it's expensive, it's an expense that was in the works like it or not. It's not an avoidable expense.

88 Charles Johnson  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:43:20pm

Links to Iowahawk are not welcome at LGF. He delinked LGF, and I'm not going to send any traffic to his site.

89 Obdicut  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:48:52pm

What an amazing coincidence that two deniers show up with the exact same link at the exact same time.

90 billbrent  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:49:12pm

re: #88 Charles

Would it be possible for you to comment on his methodology and conclusions without linking to the site?

91 Randall Gross  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:49:54pm

I'm going to cut Randi some slack on this one as I believe he's got medical problems atm.

92 Stuart Leviton  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 1:54:38pm

Ludwig, I want to apologize to you in case my statement was misunderstood. You're a gifted and smart man. Enjoy your shabbos.

93 dr. luba  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 2:17:04pm

re: #12 LudwigVanQuixote

Thanks for those lists and info. I have copied and sent them on to my e-mail group, and to one loud/obnoxious/right-wing global warming denier pen pal who's been asking me for links. Perhaps he'll read and learn, but I kind of doubt it........if he just stops with the Mammoth Lakes snow reports I'll be happy.

94 wrenchwench  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 2:54:12pm

re: #93 dr. luba

Welcome, hatchling.

95 Basho  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 3:02:47pm

re: #78 FriarsTale

well, then you are with me and do not believe in this AGW nonsense

Have you read any of the links posted? They're all short. The PZ Myers link is a very brief commentary. Just read something please.

96 Charles Johnson  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 3:20:12pm

re: #90 billbrent

Would it be possible for you to comment on his methodology and conclusions without linking to the site?

I'm not a statistician, nor would I ever want to be, but you may want to note that he ends up confirming the "hockey stick" graph. Probably not the result the deniers want to see.

97 billbrent  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 6:11:02pm

re: #96 Charles

Thanks for taking a look. I'm not a statistician either. Far from it. Since you said, a couple of weeks ago, that when you get interested in a subject you get kind-of "obsessive" about it, and since you're obviously a good coder, I thought you might be able to address Iowahawk's concerns about "principal component sausage making" in the hockey stick methodology.

98 Charles Johnson  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 6:20:03pm

re: #97 billbrent

Thanks for taking a look. I'm not a statistician either. Far from it. Since you said, a couple of weeks ago, that when you get interested in a subject you get kind-of "obsessive" about it, and since you're obviously a good coder, I thought you might be able to address Iowahawk's concerns about "principal component sausage making" in the hockey stick methodology.

I think I've spent enough time on this. The point seems to be that they could have tampered with the data, which is true, of course -- just like I could edit your post to make you look like a global warming advocate.

But I didn't.

And climatologists don't fake their data.

The idea that climatologists would deliberately fake or "massage" data is just ridiculous, if you know how the peer review process works.

Other scientists subject the work to very stringent analysis, and they will advance their careers by finding problems -- and if someone's work is found deficient for some reason, their career will decline.

There's a VERY strong incentive for scientists and climatologists to do the best work possible because if they don't, their careers will suck, nobody will publish their work, and they won't get grants or tenure.

Iowahawk understands statistics, but he doesn't have a clue about the scientific method or peer review.

99 Pacificlady  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 7:27:32pm

Reasonable people will not look to Penn and Teller, James Randi or Al Gore for enlightenment on climate change. I do think, however, there are reputable, well recognized scientists who disagree with Professor Mann, et al that are worth reading. Patrick Michaels (he is the person that Phil Jones was "tempted to beat the crap out of") has an interesting opinion piece in today's WSJ that is worth reading.

100 Charles Johnson  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 7:35:51pm

re: #99 Pacificlady

Reasonable people will not look to Penn and Teller, James Randi or Al Gore for enlightenment on climate change. I do think, however, there are reputable, well recognized scientists who disagree with Professor Mann, et al that are worth reading. Patrick Michaels (he is the person that Phil Jones was "tempted to beat the crap out of") has an interesting opinion piece in today's WSJ that is worth reading.

Patrick Michaels:

Michaels and the fossil fuel industry

According to a January 2007 report (pdf) by the Union of Concerned Scientists called Smoke, Mirrors and Hot Air: how Exxonmobil uses big tobacco to manufacture uncertainty on climate science, Michaels is connected to no less than 11 think tanks and associations that have received money from oil-giant ExxonMobil to sow doubt about the realities of human-induced global warming. These include the George C Marshall Institute, the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the Heartland Institute.

Michaels and the Cato Institute

Michaels is particulary active with the Cato Institute, where he holds the title of "Senior Fellow." The Cato Institute is a Washington DC-based "think tank" that has received funding in the past from ExxonMobil, as well well-known energy industry-money backed charitable foundations like the Charles G Koch Foundation.

101 Pacificlady  Fri, Dec 18, 2009 7:50:52pm

I don't know much about climate research; however, I know that some (actually alot of) drug research is done with big pharma money. Just because a study is backed by a drug company's money doesn't make it wrong. It may be bias; it may not. You need to look at both sides of research studies. Mann et al have their agenda, as do the deniers. I am just a skeptic.

102 friarstale  Sat, Dec 19, 2009 5:52:04am

re: #83 lostlakehiker

You say, God would not permit it? After Auschwitz, you say that?

um, no, I didn't say God would not permit it

103 gareth  Sat, Dec 19, 2009 10:43:20am

Accepting that the Petition Project is deceptive what does that say for the UNIPCC list of experts which is similarly wide ranging, and the Met Office gathering names in a similar fashion?

If we are to apply standards to our consensus we must apply them consistently.

Increasingly this is becoming like two religious sects fighting it out for believers. Even at Copehagen the sense to be mindful with natural resources, invest in alternatives to fossil fuels and help developing nations leapfrog dirty energy use was battered into submission by the newly un-settled science on one side and corporations with an eye on a very juicy carbon credit markets on the other. Good stewardship of the planet has gone out the window.

The pious politicians were acting like a circus ringleader. They have promised developing nations large gobs of money, opened doors for businesses to make lots of money and told voters it is the right thing to do. Now developing nations want more, businesses stand to lose too much if it fails and voters are less than certain things are being done fairly and appropriately. It looks like a stitch up that only the politicians benefit from!

Developing nations have become hooked on subsidies - wouldn't free trade be better? It would afford them the chance to take their own path down fighting climate change rather than needing handouts which always come with strings attached. It would redistribute our wealth into the hands of producers in poor countries, by choice rather than by force and without NGOs and dodgy Governments creaming off a slice in the process. Businesses have been lured into fighting climate change that borders on corporatism by the promise of profits and influence. If climate change were a money spinner businesses wouldn't need encouraging at all.

104 acacia  Sat, Dec 19, 2009 11:04:27am

re: #100 Charles

The Heritage Foundation and Cato institutes are very reputable institutions. They have a conservative philosophy just like the Brookings Institute and the RAND corporation have a liberal bent. The four (and many others) are nonetheless still prestigious and worth listening to. The fact that a scientist or other expert becomes associated with one doesn't mean that his or her findings or views are not right or honestly arrived at. Pacificlady has a very valid point. Before we demand that the people of this country commit trillions of their dollars to a pre-ordained "solution" (i.e. giving money to the UN or passing laws with real economic consequence but unmeasurable benefits) that has no guarantee whatsoever of having any impact on the problem it is supposed to address, we need to be VERY skeptical of ALL the claims on ALL sides. Randi is absolutely correct in his philosophy of always questioning and demanding critical analysis. We certainly have not even begun to do that on the global warming issue. I say to ALL the scientists - Go at it. I say to ALL the think tanks - Go at it. The more we study all the aspects of this the better. I'm open to anything but before I jump on any bandwagon there needs to be a thorough, reasoned and compelling analysis of ALL aspects of both the problem and possible solutions including, among the myriad of issues, the costs associated with not funding other programs because of the need to divert funds to this problem. Unfortunately, cost benefit analysis has seemingly gone out of style. (DDT for example should be seriously considered for controlling mosquitoes in Africa. It will have an infinitely more direct and concrete positive impact, at the tiniest fraction of the cost of proposed global warming solutions that promise reducing malaria. The non economic costs are minuscule.) In other words, I don't think most of us are too far from Randi's point of view.

105 billbrent  Mon, Dec 21, 2009 1:23:38pm

re: #98 Charles

And climatologists don't fake their data.

The idea that climatologists would deliberately fake or "massage" data is just ridiculous, if you know how the peer review process works.

I would agree with you if the climate peer review process were not corrupted. This article by researchers David Douglas and John Christy provides the strongest evidence to date of that corruption.

David H. Douglass is Professor of Physics, University of Rochester. John R. Christy is Distinguished Professor, Atmospheric Science, the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

If you have to delete this comment, please Charles, at least read the evidence yourself.


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