Makes you wonder...

[Link: news.yahoo.com...]

I think Trentadue is too close to the situation to offer any kind of objective analysis... JMHO...

re: #1 efuseakay

Or he is just looking for his 15 minutes of fame.

re: #2 freetoken

Or he is just looking for his 15 minutes of fame.

Either that or he's a False Flag Troofer.

How serene.

weet dreams all!

re: #5 ggt

weet dreams all!

weet dreams, ggt.

So I have a cold, and I crashed this afternoon and napped, and now I can't sleep, and the place is empty.

*sigh*

Just what we need -- a demand for the Troof in what most probably had considered a closed case. Excuse me if I can't get interested.

"You're gonna run into jerk offs. But remember, it's not the size of the asshole you worry about, it's how much shit comes out of it."

re: #6 reine.de.tout

weet dreams, ggt.

So I have a cold, and I crashed this afternoon and napped, and now I can't sleep, and the place is empty.

*sigh*

I see... The rest of us are chopped liver. *sniff*

re: #9 Sharmuta

I see... The rest of us are chopped liver. *sniff*

There you are!
No, my dear - it just seemed - slow.

re: #7 Sloppy

Just what we need -- a demand for the Troof in what most probably had considered a closed case. Excuse me if I can't get interested.

Still, best to slap jackasses like this one down quickly. Unless crushed quickly, conspiracy theories can take on a life their own and poison peoples minds for decades.

re: #6 reine.de.tout

Hi Reine!
*waves*

GIRAFFE!
*WAVES BACK*

re: #10 reine.de.tout

This time of the night, it is slower, but we can also have some great conversations. Last night was pretty cool- we had some talk about beck and birchers and neo-confederates... We'll see what happens tonight.

re: #13 reine.de.tout

Gonna go dig up my favorite beach/surfing video for you!
bbiab!

re: #14 Sharmuta

This time of the night, it is slower, but we can also have some great conversations. Last night was pretty cool- we had some talk about beck and birchers and neo-confederates... We'll see what happens tonight.

I'll be crashing again soon, I think. But it really is wayyy past my bedtime.

I've an idea to speed things up. Quick, everybody turn on your webcams and take off your pants.
/

re: #17 Slumbering Behemoth

I've an idea to speed things up. Quick, everybody turn on your webcams and take off your pants.
/

Oh, you!
How do you know we haven't already done that?

re: #16 reine.de.tout

OK, this is a video of some of the biggest surf to hit the West Coast in 20 or more years. The sound track is good too. If it's a little black dot, it's probably a person. 45 seconds of ads at the beginning.

[Link: www.surfline.com...]

re: #14 Sharmuta

This time of the night, it is slower, but we can also have some great conversations. Last night was pretty cool- we had some talk about beck and birchers and neo-confederates... We'll see what happens tonight.

My return seems to show a few friends missing, so I guess they got the door. But I'm here for a bit yet.

I noticed in browsing last nights open thread that there is no more fruit cup. Does this mean Little old Lady is gone also?

re: #20 Pietr

Yes, LOL is gone. Late nights can still be fun...

re: #18 reine.de.tout

So that's why the thread is moving so slow.

/What is the sound of one hand typing?

4 degrees warming "likely" without CO2 cuts

Global temperatures may be 4 degrees Celsius hotter by the mid-2050s if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, said a study published on Monday.

The study, by Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre, echoed a U.N. report last week which found that climate changes were outpacing worst-case scenarios forecast in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

re: #22 Slumbering Behemoth

So that's why the thread is moving so slow.

/What is the sound of one hand typing?

I am so not going to answer that.

re: #19 Floral Giraffe

OK, this is a video of some of the biggest surf to hit the West Coast in 20 or more years. The sound track is good too. If it's a little black dot, it's probably a person. 45 seconds of ads at the beginning.

[Link: www.surfline.com...]

That was awesome!
I've always thought it must be wonderful to experience being inside a wave that's rolled over and formed a sort of tube. I'll never experience it, but when I see photos or videos - just incredible.

Goodnight all. I'll be back in about 6-7 hours.

re: #26 Dark_Falcon

Goodnight all. I'll be back in about 6-7 hours.

Nite.
I'm out too.
Ya'll enjoy the evening - see ya tomorrow.

re: #14 Sharmuta

This time of the night, it is slower, but we can also have some great conversations. Last night was pretty cool- we had some talk about beck and birchers and neo-confederates... We'll see what happens tonight.

Last night I drifted off in here, went to ask a neighbor to turn down some music but got invited to the party.

Woke up at 3 PM with my head still hurting which is why I haven't said much today.

re: #28 Gus 802

You went to a party and you didn't invite us to come with? I see how you are. Big meanie.

re: #28 Gus 802

Last night I drifted off in here, went to ask a neighbor to turn down some music but got invited to the party.

Woke up at 3 PM with my head still hurting which is why I haven't said much today.

Well, I'm just relaxing and listening to youtubes of Alice Cooper and Arthur Brown (Fire)

re: #29 Sharmuta

You went to a party and you didn't invite us to come with? I see how you are. Big meanie.

Sorry my Learjet wasn't available. I came back really late, almost typed something but decided I was too out there and crashed.

re: #23 Sharmuta

The UKMET is taking into account a possible increase in emissions of CO2 from human sources as well as increasing CO2 from the biosphere as an effect caused by the human input.

Please realize though that there is always a range of possible outcomes... a window if you like, within a given probability range (e.g., a window that would include 95% of the possible outcomes.)

The 4C figure is an upper limit of the "likely" outcomes from the specified scenario.

This gets complicated because there are two large sets of unknowns:
(1) human actions (e.g., how much coal will we burn, how many forests will we chop down...)
(2) the inherent randomness and even more so the essential chaotic nature of the integrated systems on Earth. See the Wiki entry for Edward Norton Lorenz the pioneer in this field.

re: #30 Pietr

Well, I'm just relaxing and listening to youtubes of Alice Cooper and Arthur Brown (Fire)

I use headphones and listen to some tunes from time to time.

Haven't seen you for a while.

Yeah, things are in flux around here but for good reason. Takes some reading if you really want to catch up.

The ocean view is balm for the spirit. Thank you, Charles.

The Death Star: Stormtroopers' 9/11

Future troofers.

Has everybody seen the insanely cute dancing baby?

re: #32 freetoken

I figured that link would interest you. I hadn't heard China was agreeing to cut emissions. That might have an impact on the trend. The summit in Denmark should be interesting with this new study.

re: #37 Sharmuta

Everyone in the world is in the same boat.

If I ever made a contemporary events type of blog I'd probably name it It's Just One Planet.

The only way to keep everybody on this planet from screwing themselves and each other is if we work together.

That is of course the hardest thing for us humans to do - work together. We tend to fight each other.

re: #32 freetoken

The UKMET is taking into account a possible increase in emissions of CO2 from human sources as well as increasing CO2 from the biosphere as an effect caused by the human input.

Please realize though that there is always a range of possible outcomes... a window if you like, within a given probability range (e.g., a window that would include 95% of the possible outcomes.)

The 4C figure is an upper limit of the "likely" outcomes from the specified scenario.

This gets complicated because there are two large sets of unknowns:
(1) human actions (e.g., how much coal will we burn, how many forests will we chop down...)
(2) the inherent randomness and even more so the essential chaotic nature of the integrated systems on Earth. See the Wiki entry for Edward Norton Lorenz the pioneer in this field.

True. Another disturbing, more political problem arises from this statement:

The study, by Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre, echoed a U.N. report last week which found that climate changes were outpacing worst-case scenarios forecast in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

So the predictions made by climate models as recently as two years ago were wrong. A situation which seems to occur frequently. Indicating that the models are imperfect, and - given the apparent surprise at the departure from the models reality has taken - that understanding of the underlying mechanisms is also incomplete.

Scientists get themselves into all sorts of trouble when they start making absolute pronouncements instead of doing science. Previous claims made - that the models used are accurate predictors, that the mechanisms of global warming are well enough understood to construct such models with confidence, that doing thus and so will have such and such an effect within so many years - only contribute to distrust of such pronouncements. It would be far less troublesome to simply state the uncertainties, shortcomings and measurable errors associated with such predictions than to make such absolute proclamations and then turn out to have missed the mark, as has happened here.

I'm sure Ludwig will be along shortly to denounce me as a denier, or heretic, without bothering to read what I've written. But as I've pointed out to him and others before: this sort of misrepresentation of climate modeling is far more of a hindrance than a help in convincing people that anything needs to be done. It make climate scientists look like incompetent chumps.

re: #25 reine.de.tout

Everyone grows up with different experiences.
At the beach, you learn to swim early & get "bounced" by the waves.
I am sure, there are unique experiences in your neighborhood!

re: #37 Sharmuta

I figured that link would interest you. I hadn't heard China was agreeing to cut emissions. That might have an impact on the trend. The summit in Denmark should be interesting with this new study.

Well, China really isn't promising anything of the kind. They're promising to reduce their "carbon intensity," a term which no one can quite figure out, but which seems to mean that they'll maybe, sort of try to slow down their breakneck rate of growth of carbon emissions. If it doesn't cost too much.

No one I've heard who's analyzed the diplo-speak from last week's meetings sees anything in this statement indicating that actual reductions in CO2 production are coming from China.

re: #39 SixDegrees

Ludwig is celebrating Yom Kippur, so no. He won't be along shortly.

re: #42 Sharmuta

Ludwig is celebrating Yom Kippur, so no. He won't be along shortly.

Ah, thanks. It'll keep until he returns, then.

re: #39 SixDegrees

I think you aren't looking at this comprehensively.

If you look at the 2007 IPCC report, they clearly include a very wide range of possible outcomes depending upon both human-economic scenarios (the predictions of which were not the responsibility of the IPCC) as well as the expected variety of outcomes that any chaotic system has.

Don't confuse the most likely outcomes (which get all the publicity) from the range of possible outcomes or even the likely outcomes, of any given human-emissions scenario.

This is why publicizing science is so difficult. The products of the large, "coupled" models give a range of answers... the models are run many times with randomness added to give the breadth of possible physical results.

Furthermore, the authors of the IPCC stated explicitly that they were not able to include some climate phenomena due to lack of research (e.g., ice sheet changes.) One such area is the reaction of the biosphere to the changes humans have already caused. This is what the latest research from the UK Hadley center is trying to encompass.

re: #23 Sharmuta

Ha! The MET is useless in predicting anything.

re: #35 Racer X

Unemployment.

re: #36 BigPapa

Yes. Beyonce is insanely cute.
/

re: #44 freetoken

I think you aren't looking at this comprehensively.

If you look at the 2007 IPCC report, they clearly include a very wide range of possible outcomes depending upon both human-economic scenarios (the predictions of which were not the responsibility of the IPCC) as well as the expected variety of outcomes that any chaotic system has.

Don't confuse the most likely outcomes (which get all the publicity) from the range of possible outcomes or even the likely outcomes, of any given human-emissions scenario.

This is why publicizing science is so difficult. The products of the large, "coupled" models give a range of answers... the models are run many times with randomness added to give the breadth of possible physical results.

Furthermore, the authors of the IPCC stated explicitly that they were not able to include some climate phenomena due to lack of research (e.g., ice sheet changes.) One such area is the reaction of the biosphere to the changes humans have already caused. This is what the latest research from the UK Hadley center is trying to encompass.

I'd be a lot happier if I saw two short paragraphs of explanation, rather than the sound bites stating absolute outcomes that are reported. Yes, I understand that this is a problem with the media, but it's up to scientists to be aware of those shortcomings and work to correct them. And scientists are often culpable, as well; we are increasingly seeing "science by news conference" where scientists present just such abbreviated, sound-bite versions of their work emphasizing the spectacular and ominous, and tossing aside all subtlety, with maybe a single throwaway murmur of "See our full report in the August 28 Science." This race to the bottom between media and scientists only makes the problem worse, and leaves the impression I bitched about earlier intact.

The UN is also notorious for this sort of tabloidization. When the World Health Organization successfully eradicated smallpox - perhaps one of the top two or three human achievements, ever - they got all sorts of well-deserved praise and publicity. Their parent organization, the UN, felt a need to snag some of that spotlight for itself, even though the smallpox effort had been run by WHO without any direct UN involvement, and started making all sorts of ridiculous statements, like listing all the diseases that would follow smallpox into oblivion, starting - inexplicably - with rabies, a disease which defies such efforts because of it's enormous range of hosts. The stupid emanating from the UN in this instance was enough to burn your skin off, and it hasn't gotten any better since then.

re: #33 Gus 802

I use headphones and listen to some tunes from time to time.

Haven't seen you for a while.

Yeah, things are in flux around here but for good reason. Takes some reading if you really want to catch up.

I took a total break shortly after DustyVets sister died, and HH, Walter, and FBV made sure he was able to attend the services. I've seen some things on the news and occasionally swung by to glance at the front page, but I needed to give myself some downtime.

Today I just decided to get back in the saddle, and read Blackfive, Baldilocks, and then settled here for most of the afternoon and evening. It seems I'd need to read back aways to try and glean all that has gone down, and who is left of those I liked and oft chatted with, sigh. I shut down back around the end of April...just needed a break.

re: #49 Pietr

OOH, do you correspond with DustyVet?
I miss him here.
I know he was having some hard times, with his sister passing.
But, haven't seen him since.
Hope he's doing OK.

re: #50 Floral Giraffe

OOH, do you correspond with DustyVet?
I miss him here.
I know he was having some hard times, with his sister passing.
But, haven't seen him since.
Hope he's doing OK.

I had Realwest send me his address at that time, so it is probably in my saved files. I sent him condolences and later spoke with him on the board. So Dusty, LOL, and RW are all gone? And Red. our South African working/living friend, he was supposed to move to Florida this past June, is he gone as well?

re: #51 Pietr

Yep.

re: #52 Fenway_Nation

Yep.

Hellos, Fenway, long time between chats. My fault, I know, lol.

re: #53 Pietr

Not a problem, Pietr. Sometimes that pesky 'real life' will do that.

re: #48 SixDegrees

The stupid emanating from the UN in this instance was enough to burn your skin off, and it hasn't gotten any better since then.

One can't plan a picnic 2 hours out based upon the MET forecasts, and their seasonal projections based upon their computer models have been hopelessly wrong 3 years running. I think they need to tweak them a bit before they can be taken seriously 40 years out.

The MET does its best at emanating stupid but nothing can truly compete with the UN.

re: #54 Fenway_Nation

Not a problem, Pietr. Sometimes that pesky 'real life' will do that.

Amen. I was fighting plumbing problems off and on thru April and May, and we were on water restrictions to boot, sigh. My water bills were almost double, and I swear someone was sabotaging my front water faucet. It was always 15 or more degrees of plumb whenever the new fittings suddenly started 'leaking'.

Where's Slumbering, anyway? I thought he was supposed to be handing in that script for the episode of Fenway & The Behemoth with special guest-writer Quentin Tarantino.

re: #56 Pietr

Amen. I was fighting plumbing problems off and on thru April and May, and we were on water restrictions to boot, sigh. My water bills were almost double, and I swear someone was sabotaging my front water faucet. It was always 15 or more degrees OFF plumb whenever the new fittings suddenly started 'leaking'.

PIMF.

re: #57 Fenway_Nation

Where's Slumbering, anyway? I thought he was supposed to be handing in that script for the episode of Fenway & The Behemoth with special guest-writer Quentin Tarantino.

he last posted aound post 22, about an hour ago, maybe?

re: #56 Pietr

Yea...I had kinda disappeared weeknights during the last month or so thanks to working graveyard shift.

re: #57 Fenway_Nation

Where's Slumbering, anyway? I thought he was supposed to be handing in that script for the episode of Fenway & The Behemoth with special guest-writer Quentin Tarantino.

My bad, post 47 was his last entry.

Time for some Japanese Doo-wop?

re: #57 Fenway_Nation

I've been popping in and out.

Where's Slumbering, anyway? I thought he was supposed to be handing in that script for the episode of Fenway & The Behemoth with special guest-writer Quentin Tarantino.

Which one?

The one where you and I speak at great length, and with incredible narrative detail beyond which any normal human is capable of, about shit that didn't to happen to us?

Or the one where I nick my finger cutting Tri-Tip, and it becomes a gusher that sprays gallons of blood all over the studio, ala "Fist of the North Star"?

/Or are you referring to the foot fetish episode?
///

re: #55 Bagua

I have seen too many scientists say they were against certain climate speculation they supposedly endorsed, so I can't take GW as a proven fact. We are due a solar flare cycle, but they were predicting LOWER temps for the next few years, last time I heard. Likewise the calving of glaciers in Antactica is actually offset by a thickening of the ice on the other 90% of the continent, from what I've read. Hard to believe something that (the research on) is funded by people who want to prove GW exists, lol.

Have a good night folks.

re: #61 freetoken

How 'bout some Japanese Surf/Punk/Whatever/Idunno

re: #63 Pietr

If the MET hadn't called for those "barbecue summers" and droughts ahead of what turned out to seasons of abnormal cold, rain, and floods they might have a bit more credibility with the public that they have a handle on predictions decades out.

re: #66 Bagua

Hmmm... it actually works the opposite.

Think of tossing a coin. I have only about a 50% chance of accurately telling you what that flip's outcome will be.

However, if you flip a coin every minute for the next year, I can pretty assuredly tell you that almost half of them will be heads.

re: #67 freetoken

Yes I see your point, getting it stunningly wrong three years in a row, including winters, indicates their long range predictions must be more accurate. Certainly they could couldn't be more wrong so more right is a safe bet.

Public Image : Rise

re: #67 freetoken

Hmmm... it actually works the opposite.

Think of tossing a coin. I have only about a 50% chance of accurately telling you what that flip's outcome will be.

However, if you flip a coin every minute for the next year, I can pretty assuredly tell you that almost half of them will be heads.

Your're using the law of probability there, though, and that is a shade more accurate than an eco freak, or even an oceanographer, trying to predict GLOBAL climate fifty years out, lol. We have no Global Weather science as yet, just speculation by some who are experts in this or that area of science. How many times have they mispredicted hurricane seasons and La Nina, lol.

re: #68 Bagua

No, I'm not saying the sequence of expectations improves in quality, I'm saying a larger set of measured events is easier to predict.

re: #69 Jimmah

Jeez that is elderly.

And no, Johnny, there is no "could be". You are without a doubt "white".

Good morning/evening. Anyone around?

re: #67 freetoken

Hmmm... it actually works the opposite.

Think of tossing a coin. I have only about a 50% chance of accurately telling you what that flip's outcome will be.

However, if you flip a coin every minute for the next year, I can pretty assuredly tell you that almost half of them will be heads.

Hmm, wait a sec. Been a while since I took a class in probability, but the problem with teh coin toss and the gambler's fallacy is that every individual coin flip always has a 50% chance of coming up heads (say). People watching you flip a (fair, nonweighted) coin tend to mistakenly think that because it came up heads 7 times in a row, it's more likely to come up tails on the 8th toss-- but the 8th flip has just the same odds of coming up heads as ever, namely, 50%.

There is a point where with a really large number of coin tosses you do get a levelling out, and can reasonably state that the results will be 50-50 -- but it's an incredibly large number. I don't think the one per minute for a whole year is close enough to it. Not sure though.

I'm being a pedant here though, and in practice it works as a good guess that it would be 50-50, and you're making all the right points about the way the probablity of the individual toss works.

re: #70 Pietr

Your're using the law of probability there, though, and that is a shade more accurate than an eco freak, or even an oceanographer, trying to predict GLOBAL climate fifty years out, lol. We have no Global Weather science as yet, just speculation by some who are experts in this or that area of science. How many times have they mispredicted hurricane seasons and La Nina, lol.

Well no, we do have some science, the question is the accuracy of the future models and their various assumptions.

re: #71 freetoken

No, I'm not saying the sequence of expectations improves in quality, I'm saying a larger set of measured events is easier to predict.

Yes I know, but it's more humorous the way I worded it.

Alternatively, if the short range errors indicate problems with the underlying models then the longer range predictions are even less accurate as they could be mistaking the underlying trend.

re: #70 Pietr

No, not quite. Or, not at all.

Why do you use the term "Global Weather"? Climate is not weather. Climate is either (1) the long term trends in observations of past events, or (2) the expected values of future events over a long period of time, all w.r.t. the characteristics of the Earth's surface/atmosphere boundary.

The law of large numbers comes into play as we look at larger and larger sets of events.

For example: the climate here in SD is described as "mediterranean" which means very limited rain, year round moderate temperature, large amount of sunshine, and essentially 2 seasons. I am ≻ 99.9% confident that the average over next 10 years in San Diego will fit that description. However, looking at the driveway leading up to my place, I have no idea over which square inch of that surface the next rain drop will fall, whenever it rains again in San Diego.

re: #62 Slumbering Behemoth

I thought that was all in the same episode.

Wasn't it a 2-parter?

Muppet time, with Alice Cooper...

re: #72 Slumbering Behemoth

Jeez that is elderly.

And no, Johnny, there is no "could be". You are without a doubt "white".

It is elderly but great. About the black white thing - lol - I think the song is trying to describe the plight of someone who can no longer determine anything for himself, no matter how obvious? But yes - Johhny Rotten is so white he's practically blue, that is certainly true.

re: #74 iceweasel

Yes, but you are also referring to a presumably random event, a coin toss without bias to either result. As the MET is dealing in predictions based upon their own models and assumptions, we can not give them the benefit of the doubt that they will revert to a random result. They are forcing for a hot result.

re: #74 iceweasel

According to Google, there are 31,556,926 seconds in a year.

You could calculate the probability distribution of what 31,556,926 flips of a coin would bring you... and I suspect you would find a really, really sharp peak around .5 .

re: #79 ScullyDog

Good bye now.

re: #81 Bagua

Yes, but you are also referring to a presumably random event, a coin toss without bias to either result. As the MET is dealing in predictions based upon their own models and assumptions, we can not give them the benefit of the doubt that they will revert to a random result. They are forcing for a hot result.

Oh yeah, totally. I was making a small pedantic and orthogonal point about probability and the coin toss. Definitely doesn't apply to the MET issue.

I really need to go back to just posting videos right now..

It is 4:51am, do you know what time it is?

re: #79 ScullyDog

Anyway, I hope the site finds it's way back to the attitude is had a while ago.

What attitude would that be, in your opinion?

re: #82 freetoken

According to Google, there are 31,556,926 seconds in a year.

You could calculate the probability distribution of what 31,556,926 flips of a coin would bring you... and I suspect you would find a really, really sharp peak around .5 .

I don't think so, FT. Check out the section I linked about Bayes Theorem. Every one of the possible outcomes of those flips has a 1 in 31,556,926 possibility of happening. That applies to the one where it's 50/50 as well as to the one where it's all heads.

But there would be a huge cluster right around the midpoint, I think, covering a whole lot of outcomes close to the 50/50 mark. We really need someone who's in math or up on this. Ludwig probably knows.

re: #84 iceweasel

RadCap continues to rage in ALLCAPS on the dead thread.

re: #85 ScullyDog

It was a nasty good bye note, they always get deleted, didn't you get the memo?

re: #87 ScullyDog

I wouldn't count on being able to do that if I were you.

re: #89 iceweasel

Yes, you get a distribution over all the possible values. However, after 31,556,926 tries you have a very good chance that your total (say of heads) is close to 15,778,463.

Now, to get all scientific about it, one has to decide how many significant digits one wants to carry. If it is two (as is the case in climate predictions of expected temperatures), I'd say your total of heads after 31,556,926 tries ought to be around 1.6 x 10^7 .

re: #90 Bagua

RadCap continues to rage in ALLCAPS on the dead thread.

heh. It puts the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again!
PUT THE LOTION IN THE BASKET!

re: #92 freetoken

"I was told there would be no math..."
-Chevy Chase as Gerald Ford...

Christ. It's the late night arithmetic thread.

re: #93 iceweasel

That's sinister... but of course quite valid.

re: #93 iceweasel
Put the fucking lotion in the basket!

-Silence, The Musical...

re: #92 freetoken

Math is hard!

re: #95 Jimmah

Christ. It's the late night arithmetic thread.

No we were pissing about the MET's inability to predict the weather. The calls to numeracy were a hijack meant to distract the faithful with LOGIC.

RadCap will find us soon and clarify the point.

re: #98 iceweasel

how'd you dig out that reference?

re: #89 iceweasel

I don't think so, FT. Check out the section I linked about Bayes Theorem. Every one of the possible outcomes of those flips has a 1 in 31,556,926 possibility of happening. That applies to the one where it's 50/50 as well as to the one where it's all heads.

But there would be a huge cluster right around the midpoint, I think, covering a whole lot of outcomes close to the 50/50 mark. We really need someone who's in math or up on this. Ludwig probably knows.

If you do the experiment over and over and over again, you'll get a different outcome each time. The outcomes can vary from all heads to all tails and every possible mix in in between. What you'll find is that the outcomes fall onto a normal distribution - a bell curve - in a nice illustration of the Central Limit Theorem. The probability of the outcome being 0.5 or very near 0.5 is quite high, but not 1.0. The probability of the outcome being 0.0 or 1.0 (counting proportion of heads, say) is quite low, but not 0.

re: #98 iceweasel

Math is hard!

"But I do know about kittens. Lovely, fluffy little things..."

re: #100 freetoken

how'd you dig out that reference?

Oh, FT, I was just being silly. I wanted to post a link to talking barbie saying 'math is hard' because i thought it would be funny. But there don't seem to be any youtube vids of it.
{FT}

From Foreign Affairs, The case for Negotiating with the Enemy

When should [governments] negotiate with their enemies?

On the one hand, failing to set preconditions when they are useful can undermine the effectiveness of a negotiating strategy. On the other hand, preconditions that are ill conceived may eliminate the prospect of diplomatic engagement.

One should never set preconditions without a clear understanding of the other side's perspective.

THE CONDITIONS FOR PRECONDITIONS

To determine whether and when to impose preconditions, governments should make two assessments. First, is the other side capable of meeting the demand? Far too often, preconditions are set without regard to the constraints that the opponent faces or the limits of the negotiation partner's influence. Second, will agreeing to the precondition significantly reduce the other side's bargaining power? When one side demands that the other make a highly valued, irrevocable concession before negotiations even begin, such a precondition will almost surely be rejected. Preconditions are appropriate only when they satisfy both criteria: the opponent is capable of meeting them, and doing so will not weaken its future leverage. Otherwise, they will serve no purpose except to create the impression that the other side has thwarted diplomatic efforts. Demands that ignore these criteria suggest either a flawed strategy or an attempt at political gamesmanship -- or perhaps both.

[Link: www.foreignaffairs.com...]

re: #93 iceweasel

I, for the life of me, will never understand why Ted Levine was not even nominated for an Oscar for that role. Was the bravest acting role that I've ever seen.

One of three movies that consistently makes my top ten.

re: #99 Bagua

No we were pissing about the MET's inability to predict the weather. The calls to numeracy were a hijack meant to distract the faithful with LOGIC.

RadCap will find us soon and clarify the point.

Heh. I know. I was just looking for any old excuse to post that Lene Lovich tune :)

Wow, I just found out Throbert got banned... things are happening so quickly around here I can't keep up with them.

There is a real fallout happening in the various xyz-o-spheres, it appears. The uneasy political alliance post 9/11 brought all sorts of disparate people together.

re: #101 SixDegrees

If you do the experiment over and over and over again, you'll get a different outcome each time. The outcomes can vary from all heads to all tails and every possible mix in in between. What you'll find is that the outcomes fall onto a normal distribution - a bell curve - in a nice illustration of the Central Limit Theorem. The probability of the outcome being 0.5 or very near 0.5 is quite high, but not 1.0. The probability of the outcome being 0.0 or 1.0 (counting proportion of heads, say) is quite low, but not 0.

Yeah, exactly -- i realised too late that FT was saying the exact same thing in his 82. BTW, my 'math is hard' comment wasn't at all about him or anything, just a general 'late night arithmatic silly vid' post.

Here's another number vid!

Everclear cover

re: #93 iceweasel

heh. It puts the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again!
PUT THE LOTION IN THE BASKET!

There is an episode of south park where cartman is playing in his room with some dolls - re-enacting that scene with them, complete with hole dug out in floor :)

re: #107 freetoken

Wow, I just found out Throbert got banned... things are happening so quickly around here I can't keep up with them.

There is a real fallout happening in the various xyz-o-spheres, it appears. The uneasy political alliance post 9/11 brought all sorts of disparate people together.

That (throbert) was pending for at least two weeks. He was increasingly hostile and getting kind of weird.

re: #104 flyers1974

Your Nic-Would that be the UD Flyers when they won the big dance?

re: #108 iceweasel

Well, I guess my whole point was that determining the average temperature of the globe over a 10-year time window is different than determining tomorrow's high temperature for any specific city.

re: #107 freetoken

Throbert banned at long last? He of the nine lives.

What proved his undoing exactly, he pushed every boundary he could find.

re: #113 Bagua

What proved his undoing exactly, he pushed every boundary he could find.

Don't know.

re: #111 Pietr

Your Nic-Would that be the UD Flyers when they won the big dance?

Philadelphia Flyers.

re: #110 iceweasel

That (throbert) was pending for at least two weeks. He was increasingly hostile and getting kind of weird.

You mean there was a time he was normal?

re: #112 freetoken

Well, I guess my whole point was that determining the average temperature of the globe over a 10-year time window is different than determining tomorrow's high temperature for any specific city.

Different, yes, but more accurate would depend on the validity of the underlying assumptions. If they called the longer range trend wrong they could be more wrong as they dealt with longer periods.

Also, the MET's blunders were not short term weather, they were calling for seasonal shifts based upon their climate models which turned out to be good only on opposite day.

Guess this is as good as place as any to say hello. I got in on the short registration.

I'm in the military, currently stationed in Naval District Washington (D.C.). Married have a 16 month old son.

I came to this site via someone on twitter...I honestly don't know who mentioned it but I've been lurking for a few weeks.

re: #117 BryQan

Whaddup BryQan? I was gonna ask "Why you up so early..." then realized you were military. Had to get up to protect me.

Thanks!

re: #117 BryQan

C'mon in, BryQan- Thread's just fine...

re: #117 BryQan

Welcome BryQan, speak friend and enter.

re: #108 iceweasel

lol

re: #120 bagua

Welcome BryQan, speak friend and enter.

Are you really gonna make him use that password, lol?

re: #110 iceweasel

Oh dear, Salamatis has arrived on the dead thread to overwhelm poor radcap with actual REASON, this is a dirty trick, there will be nothing left to flounce.

re: #117 BryQan

Jump in Navy, but keep your vest handy, Heh Heh..

/white smoke

re: #123 Bagua

I thought this was the dead thread!

re: #125 Fenway_Nation

I thought this was the dead thread!

I was wondering about that. No drinking thread, no puns, etc.. I think the last joke was from SteveC in the previous thread, lol.

re: #123 Bagua

Oh dear, Salamatis has arrived on the dead thread to overwhelm poor radcap with actual REASON, this is a dirty trick, there will be nothing left to flounce.

Yeah, I had to join in there again with you guys. :)

re: #121 Jimmah

Jimmah-ski. :)

This is my other new fave video for people...

re: #119 Fenway_Nation

C'mon in, BryQan- Thread's just fine...

Don't listen to him, BryQan. He'll slip you ruffies, then try to bugger you when you're passed out.
/

re: #128 Slumbering Behemoth

Don't listen to him, BryQan. He'll slip you ruffies, then try to bugger you when you're passed out.
/

Where does one get ruffies? I'm married.

re: #128 Slumbering Behemoth

That was never proven in a court of law...

/

re: #130 Fenway_Nation

That was never proven in a court of law...

/

Do not confuse us with trifling things like guilt or innocence. It has a certain ring of truth to it.

re: #129 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Where does one get ruffies? I'm married.

Hmm, FBV? That brings up why you need them: so that you can indulge at home, so that you can avoid indulging at home, or so that you can indulge elsewhere, Hmm?

/white smoke

re: #129 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

You're married? Poor Bastard. You don't need ruffies, you need Tri-Tip and beer. For you, not her.
/

Found (in a dumpster behind a bar down in the Gaslamp Quarter) this Sekritly recorded video, of a stalker discussing their past brilliant contributions in discussions around the World Wide Web:

re: #127 iceweasel

Jimmah-ski. :)

This is my other new fave video for people...

I love it - just so perfect. Ironically enough, I have footage of Lily Allen's dad Keith flouncing!

Well that reminded me of taking out the garbage - a necessary yet entirely intellectually unchallenging exercise.

I just realized I'm going to be out of synch with this site pretty often.

Or to put it another way, "good morning"! :D

re: #135 Jimmah

I love it - just so perfect. Ironically enough, I have footage of Lily Allen's dad Keith flouncing!

"I'm A Tory And I Love Cocaine"

Heh.

re: #137 cenotaphium

I just realized I'm going to be out of synch with this site pretty often.

Or to put it another way, "good morning"! :D

Hey there!

re: #138 iceweasel

Do you remember the actor Oliver Reed? He is another one with quite a history of 'memorable' appearances on talk shows...

Suppose I should get off my butt and feed the animals, sigh. I try to feed my dog and stray kitties early enough tha they eat their food, and not let the neighborhood pigeons eat it.

Some soft music for the late night or early morning?
(another local band, this one from my hometown)

Heed - Seldom Seen

re: #137 cenotaphium

I just realized I'm going to be out of synch with this site pretty often.

Or to put it another way, "good morning"! :D

Don't worry. This place has no hours and there is a cool person or three around at any given time. Case in point the last few posters. Get to know them. You'll be glad you did.

re: #139 Jimmah

Do you remember the actor Oliver Reed? He is another one with quite a history of 'memorable' appearances on talk shows...

[Video]

The standard bearer, though maybe only because it is so cool:

I logged off to read a few chapters of Dawkins' The Greatest Show On Earth while listening to Divided By Night by Crystal Method, and was just checking back to see if there was any clean-up to bat...;~)

re: #136 Salamantis

Well that reminded me of taking out the garbage - a necessary yet entirely intellectually unchallenging exercise.

Yes, it did seem a bit rote, almost flat emotionally, perhaps you need another drink?

re: #145 Bagua

Yes, it did seem a bit rote, almost flat emotionally, perhaps you need another drink?

When I'm reading academic, I wanna get out of it what the author put into it, so I stick to nonalcoholic beverages - in this case, sweet tea...

re: #139 Jimmah

So, you said "Oliver Reed". Which for some reason led me to think of "Robert Reed" (Mike Brady) which made me think of "Bonanza" which made me think of Ben Cartwright.

All three of his son's mothers died in child-birth. Which makes me think that had Ben had a fourth wife, she might have gone on the pill.

See how my mind works?

re: #143 bloodnok

The standard bearer, though maybe only because it is so cool:

Heh! That was the end of Bill Grundy's prime time career.

re: #148 Jimmah

re: #143 bloodnok

i LOVE that interview. Also the doc it's a clip from: The Filth and the Fury.

Hmmm... I see we have a returnee to the Inhofe thread... I hate to keep old threads alive, but I'm tempted to go down there and comment... or, should I just keep on watching my Dreamweaver training videos? Decisions, decisions...

re: #147 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

So, you said "Oliver Reed". Which for some reason led me to think of "Robert Reed" (Mike Brady) which made me think of "Bonanza" which made me think of Ben Cartwright.

All three of his son's mothers died in child-birth. Which makes me think that had Ben had a fourth wife, she might have gone on the pill.

See how my mind works?

Totally agree with you on silence of the lambs and that guy deserving an oscar btw.

How are you, you sexy Bastard?

re: #151 iceweasel

Feelin' right sexy, thank ye.

I really don't know what to think of someone who claims that we were set on a leftist course by Woodrow Wilson, and complains about it in the year 2009... just doesn't compute.

re: #153 freetoken

I really don't know what to think of someone who claims that we were set on a leftist course by Woodrow Wilson, and complains about it in the year 2009... just doesn't compute.

I think they've been reading Liberal Fascism by Jonah Goldberg - that revisionist crapola will illegitimately screw with one's rational political categories.

re: #153 freetoken

Fuckin' Kaiser.

(why not?)

re: #153 freetoken

I really don't know what to think of someone who claims that we were set on a leftist course by Woodrow Wilson, and complains about it in the year 2009... just doesn't compute.

They've been infected by propaganda about the word 'progressive', and also succumbed to crazed rhetoric about the UN. Wilson is hated by some of the hardcore ant-govt, "i live in fear of a one world government", "Teh UN is teh Great Satan" types, for founding the League of Nations.

I've been noticing a rise in Wilson bashing, as well as teddy roosevelt. The demand for ideological purity, as well as the insistance that the other Americans -- those who elected Obama-- are somehow seditious antiamerican bastards, is now leading the wingnuts to purge even former Presidents as 'not one of us'.

Used to be they reserved their POTUS hate for ones in their living memory. No longer.

re: #156 iceweasel

They've been infected by propaganda about the word 'progressive', and also succumbed to crazed rhetoric about the UN. Wilson is hated by some of the hardcore ant-govt, "i live in fear of a one world government", "Teh UN is teh Great Satan" types, for founding the League of Nations.

I've been noticing a rise in Wilson bashing, as well as teddy roosevelt. The demand for ideological purity, as well as the insistance that the other Americans -- those who elected Obama-- are somehow seditious antiamerican bastards, is now leading the wingnuts to purge even former Presidents as 'not one of us'.

Used to be they reserved their POTUS hate for ones in their living memory. No longer.

The most retrograde reactionaries among them even consider Abe Lincoln to be a Red.

Sheesh!

re: #156 iceweasel

Yeah... couldn't believe that Beck is bashing good ol' TR almost a century after his death.

The anarchist/atavist/revanchist crowd keeps rolling back the dates of the onset of the evil they dread, it seems to me. Used to be Nixon, or Johnson. Then it was Eisenhower, and of course FDR. Then back to Wilson, and now on to TR.

Their ultimate end of course is Lincoln, where they will find the mother load of Federal supremacy, and thus will declare that the Confederacy was right all along.

re: #157 Salamantis

You beat me to the punch line...

re: #159 freetoken

You beat me to the punch line...

That's just how I roll...;~)

An opinion piece from Der Spiegel about the election results in Germany.

Interesting aside about the role of the Pirate Party winning some 2 percent of the overall vote (entry to government set at 5 percent).

re: #157 Salamantis

The most retrograde reactionaries among them even consider Abe Lincoln to be a Red.

Sheesh!

Which is like trotting out that old wheeze, "The Democrats founded the Klan, it's the Democrats who were always the party hostile to black people..."

Yikes. BTW, agree with you that DoughBob LoadPants and his oxymoronically titled book Liberal Fascism is the source for the recent spread of this sentiment.

re: #159 freetoken

You beat me to the punch line...

Spooky that.

re: #158 freetoken

Yeah... couldn't believe that Beck is bashing good ol' TR almost a century after his death.

The anarchist/atavist/revanchist crowd keeps rolling back the dates of the onset of the evil they dread, it seems to me. Used to be Nixon, or Johnson. Then it was Eisenhower, and of course FDR. Then back to Wilson, and now on to TR.

Their ultimate end of course is Lincoln, where they will find the mother load of Federal supremacy, and thus will declare that the Confederacy was right all along.

Roosevelt hatred is easy to understand; he put the nation on the path to being a superpower, advocating global projection of American influence - anathema to the isolationist Birchers.

This is, of course, an enormous oversimplification. But that's not surprising, given who we're talking about.

re: #149 iceweasel

re: #143 bloodnok

i LOVE that interview. Also the doc it's a clip from: The Filth and the Fury.

Yes! If keyboard kitty weren't so damned cute I would have chosen this to send off the banned:

re: #162 iceweasel

Which is like trotting out that old wheeze, "The Democrats founded the Klan, it's the Democrats who were always the party hostile to black people..."

Yikes. BTW, agree with you that DoughBob LoadPants and his oxymoronically titled book Liberal Fascism is the source for the recent spread of this sentiment.

They conveniently forget to mention that when Nixon pushed his Southern Strategy, complete with 'law and order' code words, that the Dixiecrats mass migrated to the Repubs, and the Solid South became solid for the other party...

re: #158 freetoken

Their ultimate end of course is Lincoln, where they will find the mother load of Federal supremacy, and thus will declare that the Confederacy was right all along.

I honestly think that's what will happen. It makes Charles' recent focus on the links so many of the people currently controlling the right have to white supremacist groups even more relevant.

Not that it isn't relevant anyway, but I think in a couple of months the wingnutsphere will arrive at that motherload, and people on the centre and left and in the MSM are going to see that LGF was stunningly prescient.

I have to say I expected the crazy to be brought when we elected a black man POTUS, but this freakout has completely exceeded everything I expected. I can't believe we're already at this level of violent and dangerous derangement.

re: #164 SixDegrees

Roosevelt hatred is easy to understand; he put the nation on the path to being a superpower, advocating global projection of American influence - anathema to the isolationist Birchers.

This is, of course, an enormous oversimplification. But that's not surprising, given who we're talking about.

They also fail to mention that Charles Lindbergh and his isolationist America First! party were good friends of the Reich...

re: #167 iceweasel

As it has been said here... It is not that we elected a black man POTUS. It is that we elected that black man POTUS.

That's what it is for me, anyway.

re: #167 iceweasel

I honestly think that's what will happen. It makes Charles' recent focus on the links so many of the people currently controlling the right have to white supremacist groups even more relevant.

Not that it isn't relevant anyway, but I think in a couple of months the wingnutsphere will arrive at that motherload, and people on the centre and left and in the MSM are going to see that LGF was stunningly prescient.

BTW, one sign of this is that the wingnutsphere chose RSM, of all people, as their confederate flag to rally around in decrying CJ's alleged apostasy.

Look, they were doomed to cast him out, eventually-- because he won't join in on the Full Metal Wingnut Freakout of each madeup issue. They were already angry and pissed. look at the climate of the party itself-- everyone is declared a RINO and driven out.

But picking RSM as their breaking point? Their last stand?
That says something really, really bad about where the right blogosphere, and the general mood of the right, is headed.

re: #168 Salamantis

Ever read "The Plot Against America" by Phillip Roth?

Scary shit.

re: #169 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

As it has been said here... It is not that we elected a black man POTUS. It is that we elected that black man POTUS.

That's what it is for me, anyway.

Oh definitely FBV-- I'm not speaking of the people who have normal, legitimate, sane criticisms of Obama, or the people who never liked or supported him. I'm only talking about the lunatic racist fringe of the right.

You don't like Obama, but it has nothing at all to do with him being black. Of course!

re: #171 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Ever read "The Plot Against America" by Phillip Roth?

Scary shit.

No, but it looks good.

re: #173 Salamantis

It is really a good book. I'm assuming you Wiki'd it. if you intend on reading it, Don't read the Wiki! It'll mess the book up completely for you.

re: #174 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

It is really a good book. I'm assuming you Wiki'd it. if you intend on reading it, Don't read the Wiki! It'll mess the book up completely for you.

No, I just checked out the Amazon reviews.

A book that I found to be interesting was Lammas Night by Katherine Kurtz.

Just finished two books I thoroughly enjoyed (only read fiction), Blasphemy by Douglas Preston (Super Colliders, God, Scientific Zealots, Religious Zealots, and the Gubmint) and just finished "Marine One" by James Huston (President is killed in a helicopter crash, lawyers and stuff).

I recommend both for those who enjoy fiction.

Lammas Night is fiction - or is it? It's a supposed WW II history of the Magickal Battle of Britain - the astral struggle between the English Witches and the German Thulists to prevent the long-planned Nazi invasion of Great Britain.

It's OOP, but used copies can be found through:

[Link: used.addall.com...]

"I will screw you Optimus Prime"

Good morning, lizards.

re: #180 irish rose

Good morning, lizards.

Good morning, {Rose}. I just arrived in the thread myself. Looks like it's been quite a weekend.

Looks like it.
Everyone either sleeping in or off to work already.

re: #182 Irish Rose
Hiya Rose.

re: #179 Jimmah

"I will screw you Optimus Prime"

"You were good, Optimus Prime"

re: #182 Irish Rose

Looks like it.
Everyone either sleeping in or off to work already.

Indeed it does. Wow. Although to be honest, I prefer the quiet to the rather heated flamewars that have sprung up here on occasion.

re: #185 thedopefishlives

It's quiet. Too quiet...

How is everyone this morning.

Hey Rose, are you feeling any better? I am just a little better, but just wiped out. And I have to get on a plane this afternoon for a week long trip. Don't want to go!

Morning, all. Crazy busy but good family weekend.

Well you guys talk of flame wars our work handing out notice of default does not endear you that much with a 6 month behind borrower.
We do cause the upset. What is the cause of the flame wars here?
I have lurked some but not that much. It seems from my limited exposure that lack of negotiating skills cause many of the problems here and in our work. Just my experience in my field any how.
There are so many diverse opinions that consensus is hard to obtain.
Just a new posters small contribution.

re: #6 reine.de.tout

weet dreams, ggt.

So I have a cold, and I crashed this afternoon and napped, and now I can't sleep, and the place is empty.

*sigh*

I crashed yesterday afternoon and didn't wake up until my alarm went off this morning.

In bed.

re: #189 TheRealThing

Good point. Flame ups happen when people are not looking for consensus; they are looking to be right.

People think they are right by yelling the loudest and longest.

re: #191 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Good point. Flame ups happen when people are not looking for consensus; they are looking to be right.

People think they are right by yelling the loudest and longest.

And when some people forget the GAZE function.

re: #117 BryQan
Welcome to another Sailor! I'm stationed in Mayport.

re: #193 rwdflynavy

Welcome to another Sailor! I'm stationed in Mayport.

I was a plank owner in HSL-36 there.

re: #194 Salamantis

I was a plank owner in HSL-36 there.

Awesome! I'm at HSL-44 and was in the second to last FRS Class at HSL-30. Spent about 9 months at HSL-32 before I transitioned to the SH-60B.

re: #195 rwdflynavy

Awesome! I'm at HSL-44 and was in the second to last FRS Class at HSL-30. Spent about 9 months at HSL-32 before I transitioned to the SH-60B.

Back when I was in we were still flying the H-2 Seasprites.

re: #196 Salamantis

Back when I was in we were still flying the H-2 Seasprites.

Yep, Got about 300 hours in the SH-2F between 30 and 32.

re: #189 TheRealThing

Well you guys talk of flame wars our work handing out notice of default does not endear you that much with a 6 month behind borrower.
We do cause the upset. What is the cause of the flame wars here?
I have lurked some but not that much. It seems from my limited exposure that lack of negotiating skills cause many of the problems here and in our work. Just my experience in my field any how.
There are so many diverse opinions that consensus is hard to obtain.
Just a new posters small contribution.

Politics makes people insane.

re: #187 VioletTiger

How is everyone this morning.

Hey Rose, are you feeling any better? I am just a little better, but just wiped out. And I have to get on a plane this afternoon for a week long trip. Don't want to go!

Not really.
The flu is pretty much over with, but I'm emotionally drained. Having a very hard time getting past what some of my former friends have done. The betrayal and duplicity is just shocking.

I'm so down that I'm considering taking an internet hiatus, away from everyone and everything.

Not that much experience with politics. Do have negotiation knowledge.
Now off to the freeways and work to use that knowledge.

Okay, where is everyone this morning?
Anybody seen Old Line Texan lately? What about AuggieMagpie?

re: #201 VioletTiger

Okay, where is everyone this morning?

I'm going to get more coffee... ZZZZZ…

re: #202 JamesTKirk

I'm going to get more coffee... ZZZ…

In bed?

Heavy rain and very high winds here, and the temperature is dropping like a rock. Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the day.

Time to put away the shorts and get out the sweaters.

re: #204 Irish Rose

Heavy rain and very high winds here, and the temperature is dropping like a rock. Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the day.

Time to put away the shorts and get out the sweaters.

Flannel sheets yet?

re: #205 MandyManners

Flannel sheets yet?

Not yet, but I'm down with the heavy blankets.

re: #205 MandyManners

Flannel sheets yet?

In bed?

re: #206 Irish Rose

Not yet, but I'm down with the heavy blankets.

I'm down with the down pillows.

re: #204 Irish Rose

Heavy rain and very high winds here, and the temperature is dropping like a rock. Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the day.

Time to put away the shorts and get out the sweaters.

Not getting the rain here in the north country, but definitely very windy and the day dawned dark and threatening at about 50 degrees. I turned the heater on in the truck for the first time this season. I suspect the house won't be far behind, so I guess I should get the windows repaired this week and get them reinstalled.

re: #204 Irish Rose

Heavy rain and very high winds here, and the temperature is dropping like a rock. Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the day.

Time to put away the shorts and get out the sweaters.

This is the last nice day we will have for a while. Rain tonight, and much cooler fall conditions. I picked the last of the ripe tomatoes and eggplants yesterday, and made the last batch of pesto.

Of course, it will be sweltering hot where I am going for the week (Texas)

re: #210 VioletTiger

This is the last nice day we will have for a while. Rain tonight, and much cooler fall conditions. I picked the last of the ripe tomatoes and eggplants yesterday, and made the last batch of pesto.

Of course, it will be sweltering hot where I am going for the week (Texas)

So you're one of those brainwashed people who believes that eggplants are edible? It's all a conspiracy...

re: #210 VioletTiger

This is the last nice day we will have for a while. Rain tonight, and much cooler fall conditions. I picked the last of the ripe tomatoes and eggplants yesterday, and made the last batch of pesto.

Of course, it will be sweltering hot where I am going for the week (Texas)

I love eggplant! And fresh tomatoes.
Here in La., we have a cool front coming through - will be 93 today, 85 tomorrow. (in other words, still hot)

Cold, windy and raining cats and dogs.
*sigh*

re: #206 Irish Rose

Not yet, but I'm down with the heavy blankets.

There's a fantastic pun in there but I'm eider too tired or too stressed to make it.

re: #207 JamesTKirk

In bed?

And, on top.

re: #213 Spare O'Lake

Cold, windy and raining cats and dogs.
*sigh*

Gonna' go splash in some poodles?

re: #214 MandyManners

There's a fantastic pun in there but I'm eider too tired or too stressed to make it.

*groan*

You couldn't duck your responsibility just this once, could you?

re: #89 iceweasel

I don't think so, FT. Check out the section I linked about Bayes Theorem. Every one of the possible outcomes of those flips has a 1 in 31,556,926 possibility of happening. That applies to the one where it's 50/50 as well as to the one where it's all heads.

But there would be a huge cluster right around the midpoint, I think, covering a whole lot of outcomes close to the 50/50 mark. We really need someone who's in math or up on this. Ludwig probably knows.

It would be a Gaussian distribution (bell curve). There would be a peak at .5, but it would be gradual, not sharp.

re: #210 VioletTiger

I picked the last of the ripe tomatoes and eggplants yesterday, and made the last batch of pesto.

The last tomatoes of the season, so sad.

I love gardening and it's always a downer to me to have to put the garden away for the winter. Sweetie knows it, and he's gifting me with all of the equipment that I need to satisfy my passion for gardening indoors this winter... heating mats, grow lights, heat lamps, self-watering pots, seedling trays, the whole shebang.

I figure I'll keep some herbs and flowers going over the winter and come late January, I'll order seeds and start my seedlings indoors.

I'm also developing an interest in hydroponics.
I may decide to set up a single unit under heat lamps, and give it a go.

re: #216 MandyManners

Gonna' go splash in some poodles?

Da dog took off so now I'll have to retriever.

re: #211 JamesTKirk

So you're one of those brainwashed people who believes that eggplants are edible? It's all a conspiracy...

Fried eggplant is one of my comfort foods.
Yes, really.

re: #217 thedopefishlives

*groan*

You couldn't duck your responsibility just this once, could you?

I could try to wing it.

re: #220 Spare O'Lake

Da dog took off so now I'll have to retriever.

Just be nice and don't boxer.

re: #219 Irish Rose

I grew asparagus beans in my garden this year. They are incredible. The longest one was 3 and a half feet. Great for stir-fry. Getting ready to plant spinach and lettuce today a little late but with this global warming thing I figure I have got a shot.

re: #199 Irish Rose

I can almost bet you that any analyst would tell you that would be a good idea. I'd miss you, and wouldn't want to you stay gone for too long, but a week away from the keyboard might do you a bit of health.

Not sure if ya'll saw this yesterday so I'm reposting it again this morning.

From HuffPo (not going to link)

Tea Party Founder Announces: "A Huffington Post Of Our Own"

Eric Odom, founder of American Liberty Alliance (ALA), the group that launched and organized the tea party movement across the country, announced Friday what he calls a movement-minded news portal and his answer to the the Huffington Post. While the domain and branding are secret for now, Odom has given his news portal a temporary name, Project 73.

It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

re: #221 Irish Rose

Fried eggplant is one of my comfort foods.
Yes, really.

I like them grilled with olive oil brushed on them.

re: #223 MandyManners

Just be nice and don't boxer.

If the dog catcher gets her we'll just have to Springer from the pound.

re: #225 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

I can almost bet you that any analyst would tell you that would be a good idea. I'd miss you, and wouldn't want to you stay gone for too long, but a week away from the keyboard might do you a bit of health.

I'm no analyst, but speaking from personal experience, this tends to be true. I've been a member of a lot of online communities, even run a few, and had some people I considered real friends just plain vanish or outright flounce. The fact that flouncers are usually "in the wrong" doesn't necessarily make it easier to take, so when it starts to get to be too much, I take a long weekend and go somewhere with the Mrs. Fish. Usually serves pretty well.

re: #224 KenJen

I grew asparagus beans in my garden this year. They are incredible. The longest one was 3 and a half feet. Great for stir-fry. Getting ready to plant spinach and lettuce today a little late but with this global warming thing I figure I have got a shot.

Very short growth period, you should be able to sneak some in and get a decent crop. Radishes too, perhaps.

re: #228 KenJen

Will we have to "pinscher" from the pound?

Are those puns copyrighted?

re: #228 KenJen

If the dog catcher gets her we'll just have to Springer from the pound.

I'll get my bichon and pitch a fit.

re: #232 badger1970

Are those puns copyrighted?

It's Charles' site but I doubt he'd want to own the puns.

re: #233 MandyManners

That would be Border line crazy.

re: #219 Irish Rose

The last tomatoes of the season, so sad.

I love gardening and it's always a downer to me to have to put the garden away for the winter. Sweetie knows it, and he's gifting me with all of the equipment that I need to satisfy my passion for gardening indoors this winter... heating mats, grow lights, heat lamps, self-watering pots, seedling trays, the whole shebang.

I figure I'll keep some herbs and flowers going over the winter and come late January, I'll order seeds and start my seedlings indoors.

I'm also developing an interest in hydroponics.
I may decide to set up a single unit under heat lamps, and give it a go.

I took some cutting of basil and other plants last night. They will join about 200 or so other houseplants. Botanical garden, here!

Good morning to you all.

I just signed up yesterday.

I found out about the place over in orange land. Someone posted in a comment the LGF definition of "nirthers" over there, and that made me curious about the place. So I've been looking in through the window for a few weeks now, and took the opportunity to come in the door yesterday.

My political views come from the left more often than not. None-the-less I've noticed that there are a lot of smart people lizards (heh) here, and figured if I was able to comment I might learn a thing or two.

Anyway, top o the mornin' to everyone.

re: #235 KenJen

That would be Border line crazy.

I Beagle to differ with you.

re: #236 VioletTiger

I'm going to make pesto with the rest of my basil. It's really easy. You can pour the pesto into ice cube trays and freeze it for use all winter.

re: #227 Danny

I like them grilled with olive oil brushed on them.

Eggplant parmesan. I make my mother's recipe. It is outta this world.

re: #237 bluecheese

Mornin'. You're welcome here no matter your political affiliation, so long as you speak rationally with evidence and don't troll.

re: #237 bluecheese

Good morning to you all.

I just signed up yesterday.

I found out about the place over in orange land. Someone posted in a comment the LGF definition of "nirthers" over there, and that made me curious about the place. So I've been looking in through the window for a few weeks now, and took the opportunity to come in the door yesterday.

My political views come from the left more often than not. None-the-less I've noticed that there are a lot of smart people lizards (heh) here, and figured if I was able to comment I might learn a thing or two.

Anyway, top o the mornin' to everyone.

Good morning, bluecheese... welcome!

re: #237 bluecheese

I second #241's comments. Welcome and good morning.

re: #231 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Will we have to "pinscher" from the pound?

Hopefully they won't charge us the newfie.

re: #237 bluecheese

Welcome, and good morning all. Oh a dog pun thread, ha. MM, you hound the lab for those H1N1 resullts yet? How is the kid doing?

re: #241 thedopefishlives

Thanks.

re: #239 KenJen

I love pesto. Great stuff to add to frozen pizza.

re: #237 bluecheese

Don't ever forget turn gave you your first karma point! :.) I always learn something here, really smart people.

re: #245 turn

Welcome, and good morning all. Oh a dog pun thread, ha. MM, you hound the lab for those H1N1 resullts yet? How is the kid doing?

turn! Long time no see. How have you been?

Capturing a fugitive from justice, and holding him under an agreement between the Swiss and US - This some French believe shows the 'scary' side of America. This is the same country that didn't want to 'give up' Ira Einhorn (sp?) the guy who kept his murdered 'girl friend' in a steamer trunk in his closet before fleeing to France. What do 'the French' really believe? Let's not forget 'Oil For Food' and Saddam - blowing-up The Rainbow Warrior, . . . yet given the chance they (the French) would frame Lance Armstrong in a heart beat. (?) go figure. (Yes, I know these are sweeping generalizations) But let's get real . . .

I feel much better now - Thanks

re: #240 VioletTiger

Eggplant Parmesan. I make my mother's recipe. It is outta this world.

bbq eggplant whole until steaming, scrape innards into bowl - add butter, garlic, Parmesan cheese and a dash of red wine vinegar. yum!

re: #235 KenJen

That would be Border line crazy.

They don't collie me crazy for nothing.

re: #247 turn

Don't ever forget turn gave you your first karma point!

Thanks.

Does the karma mean anything at this place?

re: #245 turn

Welcome, and good morning all. Oh a dog pun thread, ha. MM, you hound the lab for those H1N1 resullts yet? How is the kid doing?

If I know MM she is curled up infront of the computer with an Afghan around her shoulders sipping coffee.

re: #238 VioletTiger

I Beagle to differ with you.

That one was so lame I'm gonna terrier socks off.